The death of email….please

When I first started in this industry in 1991 having an email address was a window to the future.  As a temp at Microsoft I had a dumb terminal with Xenix Email.  I would sit there and wait for my emails to come — which usually came from the person about two cubicles down.  But it was thrilling when they came.  Maybe I had a secret admirer? Ok if I did she may be three or four cubicles down but it was a new world and I new way to communicate.

Later when I got hired on at Microsoft I got a new email account that would last for the next 18 years, hansh and later hansh@microsoft.com.  Remember at this time there was  no internet, all emails were internal, but it was still a brave new world.  The big move was to our mail server MS Mail v3.1 with a graphical client.  I know this seems rather dweebish and not terribly exciting.  At the time I could probably say among friends I was the only one who had a corporate email account.  MS Mail was great compared to my old Xenix email.  It had spell check and a global address list.   It was slow compared to todays world.  When you went on vacation and came back you had to download all your email you missed and that took 2 hours.  You could go talk to your co-workers about your great vacation.  I would say at this point I still liked it.

Several events swayed my love.  The growth of Microsoft as a company was one.  Over the years people would make careers writing massive emails to their org, their department, their division, frankly whomever would be “required” to listen and read all these emails of corporate drivel, they were in some cases painful.  I know a lot of these emails were well thought out, professional and full of worthwhile content.  However as time went on it was like an avalanche of information.  Most emails were so long that you could not take or find the time to read them all.  I cannot count the times I would let an email sit in my inbox thinking I need to read this only to a month later as I cleaned out my inbox simply delete the email.  The good side was there were training companies that offered courses on how to manage your corporate email.

An event that went almost unnoticed was the rise of mobile phones and in particular what Nokia did with the mobile phone, namely being the prime mover of SMS or simply put text messaging.  Up until text messaging the mobile phone was simply a phone that allowed you to call anywhere.    But Nokia realized you have a device that had a user interface and you could do things with that interface.  Such as type messages.  It remains largely the same today but has grown into quite an industry.  In 2008 there were over 1 trillion text messages sent worldwide.  In my view services like Twitter owe everything to SMS.

The second big event that occurred was the internet.  Now customers could email and interact with me directly.  This became a real bummer.  In addition to this now everyone could get a personal email account because the internet was “hip” and everyone needed an identity, frankly I needed more email.  Now instead of managing just my corporate email I can now manage my own personal account.  How much time do I spend each day checking and deleting email?  Way too much.  It is a nightmare.  The internet though would have benefits and as time moved on the group know as the First globalists by John Zogby would start to reject the horror that my generation started.  Enter Social Networking.

Social Networking as is so often the case in the tech industry did not start with todays current leader, Facebook.  The original was MySpace.  But despite the early success things quickly changed and before you knew it they were yesterday’s news.  In today’s world we have the phenomena of Facebook and then Twitter.  What is interesting is what occurs on these sites is a new form of communication with far less structures and far less ridiculed than traditional email.  I recently saw Obama Campaign manager David Plouffe speak and he even mentioned on the campaign as they worked hard to reach out to younger voters that they had to avoid traditional email as the primary communication mechanism since younger voters communicated via Text messaging, Facebook, and Twitter.  As he put it his views on new media communications were old.

All I can say to this new generation is amen.  I think we have reached a space in corporate america (my background) where email is actually counter productive.  I cannot count the countless  and numbing hours spent reading marketing emails, emails from co-workers, the countless fire drills spurred on by these emails, some because of their content and some because I simply either did not read or just plain missed them.  Some days I felt like my job was simply cleaning out my inbox and hitting the delete button five hundred times.

With the new trend of commmunciating via video conference I see a helpful trend where we will get back to more face-face communications.  Structured emails rarely reveal the talent of intent of the individual behind them.  There is a lot to be said about reading people s facial expressions.  But maybe more importantly is the civility of it all.  During this election season we see the scathing personal attacks that can be laid down in the print and in a large way through technologies like email we have brought that into our own lives.  Now will video communications necessarily change that?  Short answer is no.  But in the end I have to admit I am just a bit burnt out.  If a person or group of people are angry with me just say it to my face and stop this cowardly email business.  Yes email people I view your love as cowardly, but do not worry technology moves on and it will all be dead before you know it, in fact it already has.

Good Night and Good Luck 

Hans Henrik Hoffmann Nov 1 2010

Windows Phone 7 – A brighter Future…maybe

I have been pretty hard on Microsoft Mobile and rightfully so as they have been a rather stagnant organization and as I posted in my earlier blog (A Microsoft Mobile Disaster) one that  has failed to listen to the market place.  It now seems with the launch of Windows Phone 7 that Microsoft has decided to compete.  Some at Microsoft would say they have always competed and others say they have never competed.   I side with the marketplace on this one.

When I look at Windows Phone 7 everything I read is this is a consumer phone.  It seems stupid when you hear it.  Why wouldn’t you have  been making a consumer mobile phone?  A little history may shed some light. I was on vacation for a couple of weeks and when I got back I received an email that SteveB had sent to the Windows Mobile  Team.  While I was away he had come to Bldg 117 and spoke to the Windows Mobile Team.  At the time Pieter Knook was Sr VP of Mobility.  During that time within te team they were focused on the business professional.  One of the least sexiest segments, if not the least sexiest, in the mobile industry.  It focused on the suits of the world, and frankly since they no longer do martini lunches they lack personality.  Steve told the audience in a moment of wisdom, “You can focus all you want on the business Pro, but unless you have a consumer play the numbers will never add up to greater market share”.  Unfortunately the email I received was not about that.  Apparently the troops were a little down trodden after his talk, so he apologized.  Steve…why!?!?!  For whatever reason Steve did not trust his instincts on this one. This set off another 5 years of sub par performance.

When the iPhone launched and Billg saw it he said, “We have set the bar too low..”.  The iPhone really ripped the Microsoft Mobile team to the core and with the latest quarterly results from Apple it may be a juggernaut too great to catch, but to my old companies credit a technical challenge is something that will never be shunned.  My old team had VP of Development Scott Guthrie present once.  Scott said it was painful to get the Windows Mobile team to scrap the old code base, but it was realistically the only way that Microsoft was even going to have a remote chance of catching up with Apple.  But it was interesting to hear how many opposed this idea.

Now that the phone is in the market (in Europe) a bigger challenge will be to get application developers to write cool apps for the phone.  The goal was to have 10,000 applications at launch.  To put this in perspective Android and the iPhone have over 100,000.  When you are asking internal people at Microsoft to write apps so you can make your number a certain amount of sadness comes over me to hear  that company needs to issue that directive.  If you cannot excite the developer then it is time to pack up and go home.

At the end of the day the market will decide and it is already a pretty crowded field so what does Microsoft Mobile 7 offer that separates it from the rest of the mobile crowd?  Having seen it and test driven a little, not a whole lot.  Don’t get me wrong the touch screen  UI is nice and responsive.  But as far as I can tell there is no “wow” moment.  Those type of moments are hard to come by.  Even Android does not have a “wow” moment but it was out way earlier than Windows Mobile 7 was, so it had a head start.  Plus i think the open source driven development model had a “sexy” appeal to developers.  The interesting change in mobile is  the need for application’s and both Google and Apple have high marks in getting developers to write these “cools” apps.   Getting back to the Ray Ozzie final memo it demonstrates the idea of technology as part of an appliance.  No longer is one chained to the desk, sitting and watching their waste line expand.  In todays new world everything is mobile. 

We have come along way in mobility and though Microsoft jumped on at the midway point it is just now starting to understand the battlefield.  Is it too late?  When you have $40 billion in the bank you have weapons that others don’t you have a chance.  The reviews so far has been mixed and Microsoft has been working hard to get developers to write Windows Phone apps.  The market was tough when Microsoft entered but now the landscape has completely changed.  It is no longer RIM they are after, but Apple and Android.  I will be honest I am really skeptical on this one, but maybe a catastrophic defeat is just what Microsoft needs, for a brighter future…maybe.

Good Night and Good Luck.

Hans Henrik Hoffmann Oct 27th, 2010

Ray Ozzie Goodbye

Well I was already to complete a new blog post when Ray Ozzie decided to release a goodbye memo. A very timely release.   It is a monumental read and hopefully whomever reads my blog  will check it out.  A few comments and then I will let my blog rest and let everyone just read Ray.

  1. Microsoft has a lot of great assets and if they can rally and pull together those troops they can make a major impact. 
  2. The idea of the PC is undergoing fundamental change
  3. We are and will be always connected and this will drive change
  4. We are moving to appliance driven innovation both in the enterprise and for the consumer

Click on the link and enjoy.  As I started my last blog on Ray Ozzie – a Review, Ray Ozzie is a legend.  Tech legends deliver these type of  visionary memo’s.  Enjoy.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Hoffmann Oct 25th,, 2010

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Ray Ozzie at Microsoft – A review

With the announcement of Ray Ozzie’s pending departure i t seemed to be a good time to finish a blog I had started many months ago.  Partly with this announcement in mind. It seemed apparent for some time while at Microsoft and after I was gone that Ray had become very silent. It was also pretty clear that the rumors that Ray and SteveB never talked were true.  It ended with Ray not even participating in Microsoft’s company meeting recently held at the hollowed venue: Safeco Field.  It’s good to look back on Ray’s time at Microsoft and what to expect moving forward.

To start let me be clear: In the tech industry Ray Ozzie is a legend.  When Microsoft acquired his company Groove Networks, what really happened was Microsoft acquired Ray Ozzie.  The happiest person on campus was probably also his biggest fan, Bill Gates.  It was like two kids in a candy store.  Two men who were software guys who had helped create the tech industry now together talking about the power and impact that software could have on day-to-day lives, what could be better?  As time would move and Bill Gates would move on it was apparent that Ray would be the new Chief Software Architect.

Early on Ray would send an important memo around the company called the “Internet Services Disruption”.  It as important at the time because this was the type of memo that BillG would send which would have great impact in mobilizing the forces at Microsoft as to what the new company imperative should be.  When I read it it was what I viewed as a brilliant piece of work.  Not just because of what he viewed the challenges would be moving forward, but some of the great technologies we already had to meet these challenges.  In some cases they were things that maybe had lost their pizzaz but when Ray took a fresh look at them he saw value. An example was technologies like AJAX and DHTML which were created at Microsoft and fueled a lot of growth on the internet (AJAX was more evangelized by Google, but invented by MS). It was those set of fresh eyes on our assets that impressed me so much.  It was a brilliant memo and one that seemed to lay the ground work for who would be fueling the vision post Bill Gates.

Where did  it then go wrong?  I can point to a number of instances.  I will start with my own Ray Ozzie experience.  He was speaking in Silicon Valley and the topic of Bill Gates “Think Week” came up.  BillG had done this for years.  Anyone could submit a paper to BillG’s “Think Week”.  He  would then accept papers and go to his compound in Hood Canal and armed with just a personal chef read and review all the papers submitted.  When he got back he would post all the papers so we as employees could see what was on his mind.  Some papers were about the future, others about internal Microsoft technology challenges.  It was a fascinating read.  When asked if he as going to do one, Ray as blunt, “No that was really a Bill thing”.   I was not impressed.  In fact I was so upset about it I sent him an email.  It was pretty simple, but my point was firm.  Microsoft is a technical company, with very technical people.  These people crave this type of peer review.  Especially from some one like Ray Ozzie.  I said in the email “don’t sell your self short, people really do want to hear your opinions”.  Ray did reply to me saying thank you and being very gracious.  I guess in the end it was something he did not want to do.

A second area was just Ray’s personality.  He was not a comfortable speaker.  I am not saying he was bad.  When Ray spoke people listened.  Anyone in the tech industry wanted to hear hat he had to say.  But everything about Ray was about a guy who was most comfortable in a meeting room with a whiteboard.  Everything I heard internally was when he was doing this he usually wowed the people in the room.  He was a classic wingman.  Loved operating behind the scenes and influencing those around him.  Front and center was just not a big driver for Ray.

Finally there was the cult of Steve and Bill.  I was once told by someone at Microsoft that the company suffered from a cult of personality.  It was personified in Steve and Bill.  Ray was Bill’s choice to replace him.  That however does mean that Steve had to accept it, despite the title bestowed upon Ray of Chief Software Architect.  The relationship between Steve and Bill was very close, forged over 30 years,  I would also say it was not one of pure peers.  Steve would often say it is “Bill’s Company”, much to the annoyance of other execs.  My impression was despite the outside perception they worked in tandem, Steve deferred and I think to a degree was in awe of Bill.  When Bill left it would be a void no one could fill.  Ray was put in a position to fail.

With Ray’s departure it raises the question “Who will provide the technical leadership, the technical vision for Microsoft?”.  Yet another tech legend is leaving Microsoft.  It is paramount that someone is there to anticipate the tidal wave changes that impact the industry, because when they come, they come fast, furious, and with no remorse.  Are there candidates?  Hard to say at this point.  In his announcement SteveB said there would be no new Chief Software Architect.  No one to set the internal trends for future software development.  Oh well I guess it is not really that important to have a visionary at the worlds largest software company.  All I can add is pathetic.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann Oct 19, 2010

It’s easy to be nostaligic about the past, but the future is brighter

When I look back at my career so far it is easy to fall into a longing for how things once were in the tech industry.  Certainly when I speak with many fellow Microsoft friends who were there in the era of greatness we love to talk about how everything was so much fun and success in driving the future always seemed obvious.  That is an easy thing to do when what you are really doing is looking back upon your youth.  I can only add that it was fun but the road before us in technology is far wider, far faster and far greater.

One thing I have felt for a long time is no matter what cutting edge field you decide to play in, whether it be robotics, nanotechnology, biotech, technology or simpler things like consumer electronics, they all share one thing in common it will take great software to make those things a reality.  The ease of use for consumer electronics is driven by software (anyone own a iPhone?).  The mapping of the human body to make robots act and think like humans will require great break troughs in software development.  The vast computational metrics required for nanotechnology will require great software.  To cure cancer will require great software.  Yes, other things will be necessary – great minds, faster hardware, but as my old CEO Bill Gates used to say, “Software is where the magic happens”.

Now what are some things that are going to happen soon, that will be fun and exciting?  Here I will offer up some thoughts on what I think both the near and long-term future will hold for us.  Some I think will be rather obvious as, like many things, they have been talked about for many years they just have not occurred.

  • In the next ten years all school text books will be digitized and students will have a iPad or similar device at all grade levels(Android based for example). 
  • Anyone under the age of fifty, before they die will go to a bar and order a drink – it will be made and served by a robot
  • The home media center (that centralized hub for music, TV, Games, video etc..) will finally become a reality and most homes in the US – please I do not want any comments from some technical snob with a home router and dedicated storage saying “I already have one” – what will happen is we will have something simple everyone can use.
  • Vacuum cleaners as we know them will disappear as robotic appliance like Rumba will be the norm
  • Within 10 years Microsoft Windows will have less than 70% market share (in my mind this will spur innovation)
  • Lanline Telephone Services will disappear within 10 years as wireless will hit speeds never imagined (Gigabyte Wireless anyone??)…..Not so hard when you think less than 20 years ago at Microsoft I started with a PC  hard drive that had 40mb.
  • Within 15 years all medical records will be digitized
  • Dentists will grow your teeth – no more fillings (my dentists says I am too optimistic on this one…he justs says this because I am good business for him)
  • Cars will not need you to drive them…just plug in the coordinates (sorry car lovers that is just the way it will be). Eric Schmidt CEO of Google spoke to this specific point at TechCrunch 2010

All these things will be good for the economy and our day-to-day lives.  Before we get to gushing about the possibilities I should add that like all things in technology they come with a price.  We need a break through in how we will power all this technology.  One thing that is missing is what will be a big break through in power utilization. Another question is what will be the cost to humans.  How lazy will we become?  One thing they seem to miss in discussions about obese America is how everything we need can be controlled from our couch.  What scares me even more is some people like it.  How about a proposal to congress, if you can’t get off your coach no healthcare?

There is a dark side to technological advancement.  With these advances the information available to those who would do ill against their fellow-man or woman has never been greater.  Will there be a bio-terrorism attack in a subway? Airport? Office building?  Unfortunately I can add that to my list of predictions.  But my old CEO Bill Gates never looked at things that way he was a opimist on everything to do with technology.  So I leave this article to him rather than take you down the darker side of my soul.

As I wrote my coming predictions I found it easy.  I could probably easily add fifty more predictions.  But the trick in any advancement is not predicting it but timing it.  There were many efforts at a Kindle before the Kindle.  As I saw Newt Gingrich say in a speech on CSPAN when reflecting on the past century and moving forward in this one, “If you take all the advancements of the 20th Century, we will surpass them all in the first 25 years of the 21st century”.  I will not go out on a limb in just adding Newt is right.  That’s not a prediction that’s just the way things will be.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann September 30, 2010