Waiting for the next Internet Browser Revolution

When we log onto our computer these days there is pretty much only one place we want to go,where we want to be, on the internet.  When we are in the internet there is really only one application that matters, our browser.  After years of being an Internet Explorer only kind of guy I decided it was time to branch out. At my current place of employment I have loaded all 4 browsers on my Dell Laptop and I even bought an iPhone. As I have played around with them it strikes me that not any one (Safari, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Chrome) really “wows” me in any meaningful way.  But a few interesting habits have come to light.  On my laptop I spend most of my time in Firefox and Chrome, not sure why but it just seems to be comfortable to me.  In the world of mobility I am pretty much forced via my iPhone to be a Safari user and it does what I need so I am not upset, I frankly could care less..

I could go through a review of each browser but at the end of the day that would be, in my view, a pointless effort.  There are enough reviews out there and I cannot really add any value by doing one. Each has certain things that are nice and each claims to load pages faster.  The latter being something I could not verify from an end-user perspective.  they all seem about the same to me.  Chrome and Firefox have sites where you can get plug-ins for the browser, but so far the one’s I have seen are in the “geek world”.  Nothing very sexy or appealing about them, I may be proved wrong, but I am just saying..

Right now the browser has become the application of choice for nearly everything we do with a computer.  For the average home users it’s where we stay connected with friends, get our email, real-time news updates, do online shopping, and now we are starting to use if for word processing and online spreadsheets.  In corporate America  every internal corporate application is browser-based.  With the browser being so ubiquitous in our day-to-day lives it raises the question of what next?  What more can it do?  I think there are several areas that we will see these changes take place,

One of the hot topics is video.  By some estimates in 3-5 years 90% of internet traffic will be video, both on demand and streaming live events.  It;s not that far-fetched, when you look at popular content coming YouTube and Netflix it seems rather obvious.  The ability to have the entertainment when we want and how we want is pretty compelling and been sort of holy grail for years.  Of course it’s not quite that easy.  One of the big discussion in technology and what seems to be certain is the standard to play video will move to the browser based on the next specification for HTML; HTML5.  Today most video content is Adobe Flash based.  People in the industry make a big deal about open (HTML5) versus closed (Flash).  It’s a nice debate but at the end of the day what is ever the easiest for the average consumer will win out, because Joe average does not give a rip about versus open or closed and they should not have to.  In my opinion the biggest impact this will have is how we interact with our television or don’t interact.

Another change being driven primarily by Google is the browser as platform.  To the non-techies what this means in short is when I create an application I do not need to write it so that it run son Windows, but to the “cloud’ to use a popular current term.  In concrete terms in may mean you will by a personal computer that runs Chrome as the operating system.  Or maybe to quote Marc Andreeson, “Windows will just be a buggy set of device drivers”.  This is happening and is very real.  Over 75% of applications that are developed today are web-based applications.  Can  it be constrained to one browser?  Probably not, we will not see a Windows domination in the browser.  History is against that happening, but those that do not try will become history.

Finally the tablet  growth is driving significant changes in browser market share.  With an Android you are obviously getting Chrome as the browser of choice.  Likewise with a iPad you will be using Safari.  My view is with either and with not any huge difference between browsers there is not going to be a huge incentive to move to another browser.  The tablet to me is really about freedom to be where you want and freedom from your keyboard and desk.  I mean the last point in the physical sense.  If I can make my workplace where I am the most comfortable if that fits into my daily personal life, that is what freedom from technology is.  The point is with technology as much as it has liberated us it has constrained us and we get caught up in work and though we think we are being more productive, we are working longer and are less fulfilled in life.

In the end we may be blessed with a truly competitive browser environment where each iteration provides something very compelling.  With the growth in video content that possibility exists.  Mobility will take us to life scenarios yet to be imagined.  There will be downsides.  In Paul Theroux’s travel book through Africa “Dark Star Safari”  he started by saying he wanted to take a journey where there is no email, no cell phones he just wanted to be disconnected.  With the great promise of the future, the ability to browse wherever and whenever that desire will be very hard to achieve.  But the browser will be central to all those dreams and horrors for better or for worse.

Good Night and Good Luck,

Hans Henrik Hoffmann February 13, 2011

The Next Revolution has already occurred

It was interesting reading on CNet recently that Goldman Sachs was pessimistic about Microsoft’s 2011 (This article is not about Microsoft – so please read on). This was on top of a report the day before of 54 million Tablets sold this year, 37 million were iPads, the rest were based on Google’s Android OS.  As we entered the New Year we began with the preeminent trade show, the Consumer Electronics Show.  This show has grown in strength each year as people line up to see what type of technology gizmo will change the landscape of consumer behavior and of our day-to-day lives.  Analyst line up to see what the next big innovation will be and what new breakthroughs it will drive.    Reading about all this made me stop and think about the future, and as is usual I first started thinking about the past.  I will admit I am a product of the dotcom era, where everyone’s ideas were big and going to be revolutionary.  At the time everybody got caught up in it.  When it ended it was a let down on the future, it was not just not just a market bubble it was an emotional bubble.  It’s legacy is we are all waiting for the next internet tidal wave to hit us.

Information has always brought about change, but in today’s world it moves a lot faster than it used.  If you think back to the Cold War one of the defining moments was the publication of Alexander Solzhenitsyn’s “The Gulag Archipelago”.  The book that depicted the lives of the Soviet people in the prison camps during the Stalinist regime.  To get that book printed it had to get out of the Soviet Union.   It had to be hidden in homes and far away from the Soviet KGB.  Copies had to be made and there were no computers with floppy discs or CD’s/DVD’s. It required the support of high level politicians in the United States to facilitate the process (we all know how fast they move…).  The book finally got to the west in 1968, but would not be published until 1073.  It was a long, slow, and very winding road to get there.  Those days, luckily, are far behind us.

Fast forward to today and we see the world is changing before our very eyes and  technology is driving that change..  Nearly two years ago when a wave of violence and protest spread through Iran we saw “tweets” posted via Twitter regularly.  Videos came online as protesters took to the streets and captured video with small digital cameras and mobile phones and it came near real-time to the public online.  Many of the most gruesome videos from these protester came at us from the cable news networks, as the cable news companies scoured the web for the latest content.   Not their camera men but just ordinary people in the streets like you and I.  Now we fast forward to today and we recently saw this same act play out successfully in Tunisia.  Even now as I write protests have set the world (and the markets!) on fire in Egypt as violence has spread through mystical cities like Alexandria and Cairo.  Everyone in the media waiting for the next relevant “tweet” or video.  Despite the efforts of the Egyptian government to shut down the internet the information steadily flows outside its birders, coming from the Egyptian citizens.  The big key to this is not the PC, but the rise of mobility and the mobile  internet.  Former President George W Bush in his book, “Decision Point” took a long-term view of  history that the invasion and liberation of Iraq in 50 years would be the turning point in the middle east spreading democracy throughout the region.  My view is that road was already starting, but id did not require war to get there.  Technology is the major unifier as information flows freely across borders, no matter how autocratic the regime.  Democracy and opportunity is on its way as a world order, thanks to the mobile internet.

The idea of mobility and access to immediate information is transforming our lives, both in the big ways like Egypt and Tunisia as well as a small way, like paying our cell phone bill from a mobile phone while on vacation in Yellowstone Park.  If you think back in history these changes have all been about personal freedom.  Look at what the automobile did to the human experience.  The sheer idea that a person could go drive 300 miles by themselves  in six hours was unheard of, now it is fairly common as kids drive off to college.  But the automobile led to so many things in the course of the next 100 years, from the roadside Motel to the shopping mall.  Today we are looking for freedom from our keyboard and monitor (Bill Gate’s just vomited).  The mobile internet will lead to similar change and economic opportunity like the automobile.  There will be those companies and those individuals who recognize the opportunity and will drive changes in society beyond anything previously imagined.  Then there will be those who maybe saw it and did not understand it or missed out entirely on the change in front of them.   It is one of those times where in 10-15 years we will all look back at those that failed and say “How could they not see it?”.  A few companies come to mind today that are embracing the mobile change, and in some cases defining it.  The obvious ones are Facebook, Google, Apple and Twitter. Mobility is the single biggest transformation in society since the birth of the automobile and will continue to grow and change society throughout the 21st century.  Like the automobile it will lead to new modes of life that we have yet to discover.  Those companies that embrace mobility as an overarching strategy versus a line of business offering will be poised for greater success, while those that drag their feet will be irrelevant.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann February 8, 2011

My Father, My History

Sometimes as an amateur writer and an amateur blogger you need to take a break and write about something more personal. I think it gives one pause to reflect on who you are and how one comes to be. It has been over six years since my father passed away.  So the history of my family begins with my father and is the best place to start as that goes back a long way in time.  Family history is always a good place to start and hopefully this will shed some light on who I  am.

My father was born Johannes Kristian Hoffmann on February 27, 1917 on a farm in Vinding, Denmark.  You cannot call Vinding a town as there is none. It had a smith and a church (Vinding Kirke).  Follow the link, it has not changed one bit.  I go there on every trip to Denmark as the church cemetery has quite a few Hoffmann’s buried there.  My father was the eldest of 8 brothers.  At the time of his birth the world was in the midst of its first great war, World War I.  My father told me often that those soldiers who came back from the war were mentally never the same.  It is kind of amazing to me now that I knew anyone who could comment at all on the first world war at a personal level, and on top of that he’s my dad.  Life for the first 23 years would be pretty routine for my father.   After 8th grade he stopped going to  school and went to work full-time on the farm.  When he turned 18 he joined the Danish military (For whatever reason they were sent to Hamburg, Germany).  Eventually in the end he was to take over the family farm as the eldest son.  Life was following a plan.  The same plan his father (Henrik) and grandfather (Jens Christian) had followed.

On April 9, 1940 that would all change, when Nazi Germany crossed the Danish border and occupied Denmark.  It is a day etched in every Danes mind who would live through the ensuing years.   It was one of the most frightening times in human history. There were Dane’s who would join the supposed winning team and there were those who would not accept what was not right.  My father could not accept.   A local group was formed in the Vinding community to become part of the resistance and go underground. There were not many in Denmark who would do this.
I can’t name them all the members of the resistance group but I did meet some of them and was told tales of others.  From my father’s family there was he and the next 4 oldest of the 8 brothers – Christian, Peder, Filip, and Carl Einer.  From the neighboring Kockholm farm there was Gerhard, Hakan, and Torben.  The leader of the group was the Pastor from Vinding Kirke, Pastor Bitch-Larsen.  These groups were small pods in the Danish landscape.  Most Danes early on were not in the resistance.  Towards the end many would join up but in a way they were looked down upon as they did not take up the challenge when freedom looked non-existent against the Nazi power

I cannot tell you when the group was formed, but it was early on in the war.  Over the course of a few years they would do a lot of  missions well into the early morning hours. where the only light was moonlight  Their role was essentially to listen to the BBC radio broadcasts and wait to get signals about air drops.  The drops were ammunition, explosives, etc.,..they would collect at night and hide at various locations including some farms.  They would then pass on to other groups who would take the ammunition’s and set explosives on train tracks.  At the time in Denmark, Germany was sending ammunition’s up through Denmark and Sweden to Finland, where the Fin’s were fighting the Soviet Union.  So in an effort to slow down the German ammunition’s traffic Danish resistance groups would set explosives on the tracks in an effort to stop and destroy shipments.

For all this activity there was a price to pay.  War is never free no matter whose side you are on.   Sometimes those train’s that were blown up carried Danish passengers.  In one instance my father’s cousin was on one of those trains.  She was killed.  She was a beautiful woman in her early twenties, who knows what life would have held for her. Until my father’s death he had in is desk a photo of his cousin with a lock of her hair.   No matter how romantic the war, there is always a painful cost to the human heart.

The toll of collecting supplies from the British at night and working the fields during the day was an exhausting one.  Some days while in the fields my father would  be so tired he would just lay down on the freshly plowed dirt and fall asleep. Even though my fathers boyhood farm was isolated you had to keep the appearance of a working farm, as you had a tight circle of friends you could trust and could not take chances with others who may be easily swayed by the Nazi’s.

One thing I am commonly asked about my father by many Jewish friends is did they help the Jews flee Denmark?  Anyone in Denmark who was opposed the “occupation” helped the Danish Jews get out of Denmark and over to Sweden.  My father’s family would hide the Jews in the hay loft in the barn.  It struck me as interesting that the hay loft where my brother and I played as kids and had so much fun was a hiding place to help protect people from one of the worst atrocities to ever befall mankind.  I do not have much to add here, no heroic stories, no stories of people who hid,  of children laughing or crying, dramatic chases, all I can say in Denmark is protecting the Danish Jews from falling into the abyss know as the Holocaust was just something you did.  Because it was right.

Towards the end off the war there was an incident that would shape the lives of those who participated.  It came to light that during one of the night drops that the Gestapo had intelligence on what was happening and when it was happening.  The mission took place on April 13, 1945.  The British had dropped 6 tons of explosives in a field to collect.  To do such a mission would require the whole group and transport to move such a large load.  There had to be locations store and hide the explosives.  Unfortunately this would not end as planned

As some members of the group met in a farms courtyard one of the members came flying into the courtyard chased by the Germans.  It was my father, Johannes Hoffmann.  The group would quickly disband and run to the nearby woods for cover.  During the run my father was left alone  and ran across a German officer what ensued will be one of the great mysteries of his life, he escaped.  How he escaped went with him to the grave.  I never learned of the instance until after he had passed,  When the ones we have loved passed then the regrets begin to weigh on our souls as we discover what we did not know about those we loved.

During the time they were disbanded one group with Christian, Aage , Hakan, Gerhard, Simon Ramskov and Carl Einer were with the truck and the explosives.  Gerhard, Aage, Hakan and Christian ran to get weapons to combat the Germans.  But while they were gone the truck would be discovered and checked by the Germans.   Carl Einer would be taken into captivity while Simon escaped.  As Agge, Hakan, Aage and Gerhard fled they went to the cemetery at Vinding Kirke.  First Christian and Aage would be captured and later Hakan.  Gerhard was able to escape.  They would be held by the Germans for some time.

It would be my uncle Carl Einer who would suffer the worst fate.  He was the first captured and was the youngest of the group.  He was taken to the nearby farming town of Aulum.  One can only guess it was a dark small farmhouse he was taken to wherever the Gestapo had headquarters, but in the end they had plans for him.  They tied up his hands and feet and then hung him on a pole.  Then two German soldiers took turns beating the living hell of him.  They wanted the names of his collaborators.  He never gave up those names, but years later I would hear he was never the same after that incident.  Having met him many times I think I understand his personality better.  He has long since passed and I will never get to ask him about what happened in Aulum, but I gather if I had he would not have answered.

The other 3 men who were captured would later the following day be re-united with  Carl-Einer in Aulum, but he did not look too good after what he had been through.  They were all sent to Aarhus, the second largest city in Denmark.  Christian would be bound to a chair and beaten.  He was stronger than Carl Einer mentally and did not give up any names either.  They beat him severely.  They asked him again  and again for name.  He looked u, his face smeared in blood and said, “Go to hell”, then received one more mighty blow and slipped into unconsciousness.  The four were put into a jail cell.  There were 19 men housed in a prison cell designed for 3.  While in the jail cell they were all sentenced to death by firing squad.

After they disbanded, those that escaped all had to hide.  My father was on the run, he found a farmer who took him in and hid him for the next 4 weeks.  There were a lot of Danes who helped the resistance movement during this time. When I was in Denmark in 1972 my father took me to a retirement home where I met the man who helped hide my father.  I wish I could have understood more than. I would have thanked him.

This was a very stressful time for all in the Hoffmann family.  Several sons were in hiding and 3 more Hoffmann’s were being prepared to stand in front of a German firing squad in Aarhus.  Though I am sure my grandfather and grandmother knew a lot of what was going on I am sure they were sheltered from most of what was going on to avoid becoming to involved in the resistance.  In the end fate would smile kindly on my relatives as on May 5th , 1945 the Germans surrendered to the allies and Denmark was once again free.  My uncle’s were spared the firing squad and would return home.  Christian would take over the farm and my father would start another journey that took him to Canada and then the United States.  But that is another story.

Good Night and Good Luck,

Hans Henrik Hoffmann, Danish Son,  February 1, 2011

Categories Uncategorized

The iPad Juggernaut …..

I guess it was bound to happen.  It is something I have seen many times before.  It is annoying, frustrating, and in some corners just plain pathetic.  Addressing the competitive threat by any means necessary.  even when it is obviously desperate.  It’s these type of corporate responses that drive me nuts. Recently Microsoft (my old company) has come under a lot of pressure to come up with a Tablet strategy.  I should add Microsoft has had for years a Tablet.  It was one of Bill Gates’ pet projects,  They just need a strategy that works.   The Microsoft response is a iPad battle card to help Microsoft partners and its field sales force sell Windows 7 slates in the enterprise, while combating the threat from the iPad.

Let me go back a bit in time and just say I have seen these battle cards before.  It was pretty standard practice at Microsoft across all battle lines and often they were very helpful.  However after the successful debut of the Apple iPhone I received in my mail box a little envelope that contained my Windows Phone 6 versus the Apple iPhone battle card (I am serious…I am not making this up).  What were some of the advantages of Windows Phone 6?  It had mobile Office, Sharepoint Support, better Exchange Synch etc..If you read the link earlier you will by now realize that whomever the marketing manager is who put the Apple iPad battle card together has mastered the art of copy and paste.

Do not get me wrong for a minute, I do not envy the marketing Manager who had the responsibility of taking this on.  It is one of those things that when nothing is happening on the product side you still have to generate some sort of response, the worst thing is to be quiet. And to their credit they created some really nice slide ware. I will be however surprised to see if any of my former mates in the Microsoft field sales force ever have the guts to present this to a customer or even regurgitate it over drinks or dinner with a client.

The slide, though intended for partners, demonstrates the focus on the enterprise and the disengagement in general from the consumer market place.  I should also add this did not come out of Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices division.  If it had it would have a far greater emphasis on the general market.  The Windows Division is outside all of that its own $20 billion juggernaut.  We call that power.    The slides do highlight the success the iPad is having in the enterprise space as more and more users want access to their corporate networks from their iPad.  It’s the reverse of what happened with Windows , which first took off in the business world before penetrating the home.  But times have changed and with new devices hitting the market at an ever-increasing pace and a much more affordable price big sea changes in the enterprise often come from the outside in versus the inside out.  People want to be cool even when they are in he office.  Even if they are an accountant.

Finally the biggest issue I hear these days is people at the Big M are tired of following and not leading (the exception being the xBox team with Kinect).  They want to be out in front of the industry.  But if you read my last blog on Facebook I highlighted how similar they were to Microsoft, when it was a younger company.  Now it’s not like people at Microsoft are really old, no far worse, they are middle-aged.  They have kids, they live through their kids, they have divorces, they are joining AA, they buy expensive sports cars, they try really hard physical activities that they used to be able to do, they buy iPads…I think you are getting the picture.

In the mean time the Tablet market keeps chugging along as highlighted in Apples recent earnings announcement.  There are other entrants that are also gaining momentum, like Android (we should seem new slide ware shortly).  I admit I was skeptical when the iPad came out.  I felt like it was just a giant OS, but there is a beauty in having the same core code between your phone and your tablet.  The applications are easy to write for both.  The iPad seems to be gaining momentum as it creates a scenario where a more powerful device can be useful and mobile.  There are a lot of scenario where having a monitor is useful and even desired, but with so much time spent on the web there are a lot of scenarios where it does not, just look at all the useful features of the latest Facebook mobile apps.  How many people out there are just checking into their favorite Starbuck’s? I need no mouse or keyboard for that I just need my finger.  The only way to compete with iPad is to get ahead of it, but once a boulder starts to slide down a mountain it i s hard to stop.

Good Night and Good Luck!

Hans Henrik Hoffmann January 25th, 2011

Facebook

With the movie “The Social Network” winning big at the Golden Globe Award maybe it’s a good time to  look at the current landscape in the industry one of the glamor children is without question, Facebook. It’s easy to look at Facebook and see the appeal.  For starters they have 500 million users.   It allows you to connect with people from your past life and your present life. It has the ease of use thing down so any person logging on to the internet can quickly get on to start benefiting from the experience.  Finally it’s fun.  But as always in technology there are bigger things at stake.  Underneath it all is a booming business and an opportunity to define the future of technology.   It has, as I have called it, the velocity of business.  With each wave they come bigger and faster.  We started with Microsoft.  Then Google.  Now we enter the Facebook era.

Like any great business in the technology sector it starts young.  Usually around the college age.  Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg sounds like a Bill Gates clone.  Teenage computer wiz, goes to Harvard, drops out, makes his first billion.  It’s a pretty simple formula.  The thing that Facebook has so in common with Microsoft and Google is that in its early years, and Facebook is still there, the employees of Facebook are young.  If I joined Facebook (I am 44) I would probably double the average age of the company.  All great technology companies in the early days have that singular focus, from top to bottom.  They come in late and stay late.  They eat like crap.  They have no sense of fashion.  They do not have families to go home to,  They have but one mission, create the future of tomorrow.  Watch ant CNBC special, read any Facebook blog, you name it and you will see Facebook’s culture is exactly that.  Do not worry that these young kids will dominate the world for the next  twenty years, because in twenty years they will be middle-aged.

The great things about youth is it envisions a greater and brighter future for the world.That is part of being young, that desire and hunger to make a difference.  Facebook started simply as a way for Harvard Students to connect with one another and then it spread to other Universities.  As is so often said, big things start small.  Then the young guns started to think big.  We can bring people’s past to the present.  Beyond friends we can link companies, provide news, drive political discourse etc..Was there a successful campaign run in 2008 that did not leverage Facebook to some degree?  the fact that Barack Obama had this huge grass-roots movement started by the youth of America was instrumental in getting him elected and Facebook was a big part of that .  These things don’t happen by accident like people would like to think.  In the background is a small office in the Silicon Valley, that is young and thinking big and driving these changes in how society functions.

So why the fear by so many companies of Facebook?  Microsoft may be an investor in Facebook, but they worry. Google is terrified of Facebook.  One thing is mass.  Today depending in who and what day you listen to Facebook has between 500 million and 600 million subscribers.  A great many are active.  they spend time on Facebook and not just a few seconds to type in a search criteria but to share comments, to upload pictures, view others comments, to say the “like” a particular post, play games, etc..When people spend a lot of time at a particular location on the internet than the obvious question becomes “how do we monetize it?”  With Facebook it now has developers writing games for Facebook.  Facebook has its own instant message client.  Looking forward you can see search being a larger component of the user experience, I think this alone would keep Google executives awake at night.  the more developers writing applications for Facebook, the less time for Windows.  I would assume a lot of applications for Facebook would not reside on your desktop, but would sit out on the internet thus making Facebook a really great cloud computing platform and putting it in the early lead of consumer facing cloud based applications (as it currently stands today Facebook is a cloud based application).

Finally Facebook has taken advantage of current technology trends to extend its reach, specifically I am referring to mobility.  If you look at your Facebook posts today how many posts are coming from a mobile device?  As Apple launched a new era of mobile apps (yes there were application for mobile devices before but to find them and load them was painful and that is being kind), Facebook took full advantage.  Now you see posts coming from iPhones, Android Devices and Blackberry’s.  The beauty of mobility is freedom and Facebook seems to add nicely to that user experience.  Because in the end we want our lives, in particular our social lives to be care free.

Looking forward it is easy to project now that Facebook will be a major force, but as is so evident in technology things continue to change and things our changing faster than ever.  It took Microsoft twenty years to get to Windows 95.  It was a singular focus that drove that vision.  That kind of commitment, that type of time line is a thing of the past.  As  is evident with Google then with Facebook the internet gives rise to new power players in less than a decade.  It’s important to have a long-term  outlook in business but the question these days is how long do you look forward?  If you look too far out some company may pass you by before you get there.  For now the ball is in Facebook’s court, is there a young kid with an idea with a vision that will pass Facebook?  In all likelihood, based on what we know, the answer is yes.   With that enjoy I hope you enjoyed this post which many of you will access from…Facebook.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann,  January 17, 2011