Hans Hoffmann's Blog

Recently at VMWorld. VM Ware CEO and former Microsoft President Paul Maritz stated that, “Steve Jobs said we are entering the post PC Era, we agree with that”. Strong words coming from the man who used to run the Windows division at Microsoft and played a large part in building the Windows empire.  To be clear, in my mind, the PC is not going away but it’s importance will be diminished as new devices and new use case scenarios come into the marketplace.  The Microsoft response has been rather predictable as they move to protect their cash-cow, with yet another new slogan – the PC + era. A world without PC’s is rather unthinkable or unimaginable in Redmond.  It’s a question of seeing the future versus trying to prevent it.  The former has a perfect record so far.  The future is inevitable.  Still maybe the more relevant question is not will it happen but how far off is it.    Maybe it’s already here.

Certainly trends both at the consumer level and enterprise level over the past few years tell us we are moving to a world where the PC is not the centerpiece of our technology universe.  Looking first at the universe of the consumer it seems readily apparent. If Steve Jobs did anything he introduced the iPhone that allowed us for freedom far beyond what we had before with a mobile device.  Did it end the need for a PC?  Am I writing this blog on a iPhone or a PC?  I will give you a hint, it would be a bit slow withe the iPhone.  Though I understand the defensive posture from Microsoft and even agree with it, we are most definitely moving into the post PC era.  One where we will be less tied to the idea of a keyboard.  We are in the connected universe .  It means we will see a lot of innovation in terms of device form factors – some will be single use devices like the Amazon Kindle, however even as I write (you read) this is morphing into a new Amazon Tablet.  It was not that long ago a Garmen GPS was hot, now I can do all that on my iPhone.  I believe that we will finally soon see these features introduced into day-to-day appliances – where on our stove or refrigerator we may have wireless access to provide us relevant information specific to the appliance.  Anything from recipes to repair instructions and support.  It’s one of those scenarios that have been talked about for years, but I think the technology has matured enough to make it a reality.  It’s also a scenario that does not require me to boot up my PC.

At the enterprise level it is really about cloud computing and allowing companies to offload a lot of their IT costs and focus back on their core business.  When I was covering News Corp I heard through the grapevine that Rupert Murdoch viewed IT as a necessary evil.  I think he speaks for a lot of companies who have had to invest in areas of support and services that are not core to their business. Over the years time and time again in the industry you would hear about companies who launched big IT initiatives which were to streamline the company and make them a more agile business, only to have those project fall into disarray and end up costing millions of dollars in cost over runs, and finally  to ultimately fail.  Cloud computing at a high level is an easy sale.  Let someone else worry about your IT infrastructure and get back to what your core competencies as a business are.  The move to the cloud starts in the data center and moves all the way down to the desktops and laptops.

When you think about desktops and laptops it may make you think we have returned to mainframes with dumb terminals. To a certain degree it has.  But I was listening to CNBC one morning and they were talking about Generation Y (those born 1980 or later) and how they use or do not use technology. This generation is the Tablet, Laptop and Mobile phone group. The idea of a desktop is not their thing.  They are also the generation that will feel more comfortable with using cloud based services.  In addition many things that were thought to be only available using the power of the PC are now readily available in the cloud and can be viewed through a web browser.  Think if all the mapping technologies we have available to us today.  We take for granted that all of that is being provided to us remotely and we are just consuming a  service.  We need a user interface to consume services but where those services reside is not relevant to the majority the world’s population.

In the industry we often talk about “tidal wave” changes that transform the industry and how we compute.  Some are obvious and others just happen.  The obvious would be the rise of personal computing, the internet etc..Others are less obvious – One I think would be the convergence of mobility.  One minute it was just a cell phone and the next it was a part of everything.  Our home, our coffee shop, our work etc…It just seemed to naturally happen over time.    The 90’s was the PC era.  The first decade of the new millennium was the software decade.  Now is the decade of the cloud as all we know get set free and is just available for us to consume, wherever and whenever we want.

We can choose to hold onto the past, it’s a natural human condition to do so.  To think of happier times.  Of times when everything seemed to go right.  But unlike humans businesses are not driven by fond remembrances of the past they are driven by the bottom line.  You can be nostalgic about your history but don’t do so at the risk of your future.  In the technology space that is particularly true because it is all about the future and things are meant to change.  The PC changed mankind and will be remembered as a defining moment, but like everything it was not infinite.  By its own creation only one thing was certain that it had to die.  Thanks PC you changed everything but the future awaits and you are not as relevant as you once were.  All revolutions end.  Welcome to the post PC Era and enjoy as in time it will just be a happy memory.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann September 13, 2011

“Our envy of others devours us most of all. Rub your eyes and purify your heart and prize above all else those in the world who love you and wish you well. Do not hurt them or scold them, and never part from them in anger”

– Alexander Solzhenitsyn

In my journal on Sept 16th I wrote those words as they seemed to help cope with those tragic events of September 11th, 2001. I find the Russian writers heavy hand a good way of dealing with life’s lower points. I cannot add much to a day that so many of us experienced in so many ways. This is just an account of my day, which was just another day in which I was going to work at Microsoft.

The morning started like so many. I had two young boys at the time. One was 2 and the other was nearly 6 months old. I woke up with the oldest and my wife soon followed with the youngest. He was hungry so she fed like many mothers do, child to breast. It was Tuesday and I had to go to work. It was also the day my parents took care of my older son. Luckily my parents lived not more than 2 minutes from the Microsoft campus so it was convenient. That day I was attending an internal conference at the new conference center on campus.

Before I went to work I needed to fill up my 1994 four-wheel drive Ford Ranger with gas. I was dressed and ready to go so I took my two-year old and we hopped into the Ford Ranger and drove over to Costco to fill up the truck. As usual I was listening to Fisher and West on 103.7 the Mountain. They were playing music and providing traffic updates. A small news item was about a small aircraft that had hit the World Trade Center. As we drove and Fisher and West spoke we neared Costco. It was then Fisher said, “another plane has hit the World Trade Center”. As Fisher and West continued to talk Fisher abruptly said, “I have got to leave for a second and check this out”. It was at that moment I knew this was no accident. These two DJ’s had been on the air for a long time and were true professionals, for Fisher to suddenly leave on air for a moment to watch the television told me something was not right in the world.

I filled up the truck and raced home as the news was starting to filter in that a United Airlines Jet had hit the World Trade Center and it was believed the first plane was a jet as well. I got home jumped out of the truck, ran round to the other side and pulled my two-year old out the passenger door of the truck and raced into the house. As I launched myself through the door I put my two-year old down and raced into the living room. My wife heard me and saw me running to the television and was asking, “what’s going on?”. I replied, “A plane hit the world trade center”. Then I turned on the television to Channel Five and the Today show. And then there it was, a Boeing 767 flying directly into the World Trade Center. Before our eyes, as a look of horror overcame our faces, we had just watched at least 300 and probably more people die. Fathers, mothers, brothers and sisters would not be coming again, ever.

As we watched the news reports we had to get ready for the day. I got my son in the truck and we drove off to Redmond. As I drove south on I-5 and then merged west bound onto 520 the reports were streaming across the radio. Many reports were unconfirmed. Car bombs in Washington DC, planes hi-jacked but how many? The reports kept coming in. What was happening was our entire nation had become unsettled and no-one, not even the “freedom of the press” knew what was going on. It was a moment unlike any in US history.

When I got to my parents they of course were watching. I asked them not to watch TV as I did not want my son watching, since he was at that age where he was beginning to take in and absorb everything he saw. This was one event I did not want him to absorb. For the first time in fatherhood I found myself saying that old cliché, “he is only a child”. It just was not so cliché anymore. With that I said my goodbye’s and I got back in my Ford Ranger and drove off to the Microsoft conference center.

When I got to the conference center I walked in to the new facility with its new rooms and tables set with breakfast items. I walked into room we were scheduled to be in which was a large room that held around 100 people with a big movie size video screen. But rather than Powerpoint’s today we had the news on and the site of the World trade Center’s twin towers on fire. People from offices all over Microsoft North America. It was to discuss some new Partner Programs as far as I remembered, but who cared. It was a dazed audience as we just all sat and stared at the big screen . It was as if no one was comprehending what was going on. We just watched. Then at 9:59 am the South Tower fell. There were screams in the audience. We were so far removed yet so close. Who could do such a thing? Why? We sat another 30 minutes until 10:28 when the North Tower fell. The screams and yell came again and then it was over. What had started as a quite morning had produced a horror that no one could envision.

After the North Tower fell news began to filter in. The skies were closed. Anyone who had a flight out of Seattle would not be going home anytime soon. When I went out into the hall people were already in planning mode. I heard of some guys from Detroit who had rented a car and were driving home. Confusion was everywhere. I was just in a daze. I went back into the room and it was apparent the people who had organized the meeting were trying to figure out what to do. At 11:30 they decided to move forward with the presentations. They started and I listened and watched. Some people were actually engaged and asking questions. I couldn’t. The event was just too great for to me and many people in the audience to ignore. I thought it was a poor decision and around noon I just left and decided to go home.

I left and went to pick up my son a couple of miles away at my parents house. As I left for the drive home my mind was filled with anger and confusion over the events that I had seen that day. Even though the day was only half over I was tired. As I drove over the 520 bridge on Lake Washington and saw Seattle before me I realized how beautiful the day was. It was similar to New York in that regard. The sky was clear blue and the water on the lake was very calm and soothing. It seemed like the flames of hell were in my mind but the beauty of my hometown was captivating and I could not reconcile the two. I crossed the bridge and decided to go to the church where I was married, Blessed Sacrament. I needed peace. I needed to turn the radio off. I needed to turn the TV off. I needed to turn the media off.

To my surprise when I got there and went into the parish. My son and I were the only two people there. I sat in thepews and bowed my head. Looking. Searching. Trying to understand and find reason in a world I did not understand anymore. My son was jumping and running around the pews in a joyful kind of play. It was a paradoxical sort of moment, that maybe only a child could provide. In its own way it was as real as life could be. I went home and the rest of the day has fallen from memory. Probably because I turned the TV on. The one thing I remember is the sky was quiet, except for the occasional fighter jet that flew over head. It was frightening.

In the coming days many acts of heroism would come to light and there were people at Microsoft who did their part. Kim Daley the GM for the Microsoft Ney York office did her part in working with Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s office. I knew Kim having worked with her before, she was a very hard working dedicated Microsoft employee and it did not surprise me she rose to the occasion. I am sure there were many employees not just at Microsoft but many other companies in corporate America who rose to the occasion. It was just what had to be done. The Microsoft human resources department, on a global scale, communicated throughout the week and kept every employee informed on what we as a company were doing and what people could do to help. It was great work ,it was impassioned work.

The events of 9/11 caused many Americans to do things just because it was the right thing to do. because it was what was needed at the time. As a country we came together because things needed to be done. Imagine what we could accomplish if we thought that way all the time. Unfortunately that is not the way things work. But in any case lets just pause and maybe, just maybe let’s imagine what could be.

A month later the season of Fall had settled in. I love fall above all other seasons. I love the changing of colors. The change in temperature to a coolness greeted with warmth in the afternoons. I looked forward to raking the leaves from underneath the large maple tree in our yard. It was kind of magical experience. On this day on October I was with my eldest son, he with his little leaf rake and me with my man rake. As we sat there under a bright blue sky a jet plane flew over head. Leaving a jet stream in its wake. then my son uttered words that caused all the blood in my veins to freeze, “Daddy, Daddy, plane fall down, plane fall down…plane fall down….”. Then I wept.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Hoffmann September 11, 2011

Last week Hewlett-Packard made the stunning announcement that they were dropping the development of the Palm WebOS and would be spinning off their PC business.  The news was greeted rather harshly by the critics and the stock market as they have continued to batter the company since the announcement.   I cannot say I blame anyone as it seems a certain amount of ineptitude has taken place in the HP boardroom.  Why do you announce you are exiting the PC business but have no plan in place or buyer for the business?  They are killing their Tablet business only having recently launched it, not to mention they just acquired Palm a little over a year ago for $1.2 Billion.  Rather than die a slow death they have decided to immediately sentence to death the Palm, setting off a selling frenzy at Best Buy and pissing off a lot of consumers, who just bought one. HP has that look of that all too often used phrase, ” A deer in headlights”.

For starters I don’t think this is necessarily a good thing for the United States as if HP exits the PC business it is likely to go over seas, namely Asia.  I guess I am surprised they just did not follow the IBM model and create a Lenovo competitor. But if you think back in the day there were a lot of US-based PC companies (IBM, Compaq, Gateway, Dell, HP etc..).  Now e we will basically be reduced to one: Dell.  I guess in today’s world it’s not surprising as anything that requires a manufacturing base eventually ends up in Asia.  But the bigger concern with Headquarters in Asia a lot of the R&D focus will move there as well and that will have ramifications to the US down the road.  With a higher education base emerging in these markets we are at the beginning if the Asian dawn – though some would argue this has been underway for sometime, in my view it is still very early in the game of shifting global balances of power.

The second big impact will be to HP itself as it seems to be operating as a rudderless ship at the moment.  HP has been, by enterprise standards, a revolving door of executives.  First we had Carly Fiorina who drove the acquisition of Compaq.  Then we had Mark Hurd, who was doing just fine until his sexual impulses got him in trouble with a reality actress. Finally we have the German Leo Apotheker, who unless he does something drastically different soon could be the next CEO to be shown the door.  This is a company that I used to hear Steve Ballmer place above all  others in the tech industry.  The company that Microsoft should try to emulate. Not such a good idea now. What I am sure is frustrating to shareholders is this is not technology issues dragging the company down, but complete ineptitude at the top of the company.  A fundamental lack of leadership. This, in the end, will have a demoralizing effect on the employees. More troubling will be if it starts to impact customers, where HP has always had strong entrenched relationships.

The third will be Microsoft.  On one had it loses a tablet/mobile competitor in the WebOS.  But much more significantly it loses a major partner in the licensing of Windows and Office.  This is a tentative time for the Windows OS.  Though it is still early there are emerging alternative options in the market place, that are more realistic than previous competitors such as Linux.  Google’s Android is a viable option because there are applications for the platform.  Whomever takes over the HP PC business would be wise to leverage this (on the flip side they would be stupid if they did not).  The Compaq/HP relationship extends over 25 years and was  a major reason that Windows was able to rise and take its existing place in the market.  This change will bring a level of uncertainty to Microsoft’s core business.  Microsoft right now could use a bit of stability in the marketplace with its existing relationships.  HP on the flip side will have to restructure a lot of relationships now that they are exiting the PC business, from Microsoft to all the suppliers of the parts that make up the PC’s.

The long-term ramifications of this, dare I say, titanic shift in the PC business is going to be an environment where countries with manufacturing bases will enter a world where they will increasingly look to develop and patent their own technology.  With the US PC business being reduced to Dell.  Another benefactor of this, on the plus side for the US, will be Apple as its monolithic technology stack had a window to further enhance its current momentum, while the rest of the industry waits for the fog to clear.  HP,a s far as anyone can tell, is focused on competing against IBM in the services business.  But where IBM always seemed so clear, HP of recent times has appeared clumsy and unfocused in what it is attempting to do, in what it is attempting to become.

In the end handling transition in the technology sector is challenging and it requires some long-term vision to handle those challenges.  As fast as technology moves if you don’t have along term vision as to where you are headed you can carve a very bumpy path for yourself.  You end up with a lot of stat and stops and find your self changing direction and positions often, much to the confusion of the end customer.  HP fins itself in tha position today and as observers we are all left to ponder, “hey HP what are you doing?  Where are you going”.  What we seem to be getting back as answers or non answers is a deer in headlights syndrome.  The problem with the syndrome that no one ever seems to contemplate is that the deer usually dies.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann August 26, 2011