Hans Hoffmann's Blog

I remember years ago when Scott McNealy was still CEO of SUN Microsystems, he was speaking at some large industry conference.  At the time we were starting to see the fruits of video surveillance technology, people were getting a little worried. Big brother was here and people did not like it, especially if you had just got a “photo” ticket in the mail. In front of a large audience Scott’s comment regarding video surveillance technology was to everyone, who was concerned, “Get over it”.   It’s always nice to be scolded  by a keynote speaker.  Scott was not really known as a touchy feely kind of guy. For that matter most corporate executives are not.  However his comment did speak to the nature of technology in that once the train leaves the station progress is hard to stop.    It takes on a life of its own and the rest of the world is left trying to catch up.  Video surveillance has only grown since those comments were made raising the question, “where are the boundaries”?

The borders are becoming increasingly blurred even as video becomes more pervasive in our day-to-day lives.  This is something I pulled off of the Yale – New Haven Teachers Institute sight, written by Angelo J. Pompano, but it does a clear job of illustrating a point:

No, this is not your father’s Candid Camera. Privacy in the Age of Video Surveillance is a serious concern. With the proliferation of video surveillance equipment in every conceivable situation of our daily lives, concealed video cameras are not a source of amusement as on the old Candid Camera television show, but a real restriction on our right to privacy. Consider a hypothetical, but possibly typical day: you wake up and walk out to your mailbox. A neighbor’s private security camera is trained on his driveway across the street and picks you up. Later, you drive to work and when you get to the light on the corner, a video camera is watching to see if you went through red. You stop off at an ATM and you are taped. You go into the 7 Eleven-taped; pump gas- taped; get on the interstate and the traffic control cameras are focused on you. You get to work and the camera in the parking lot follows you into the building. Then you finally get you your desk and once more you are monitored. Let’s not even consider the possibility of hanging out at the water cooler or going into the bathroom. It’s only 8:15 AM and you have already had more TV exposure than Regis Philbin. You begin to think that maybe you shouldn’t have worn that plaid tie with the checkered shirt.

This example is current. It exists today.  We bask in watching reality TV shows when in actuality we are already living it.  We just fail to notice or simply do not care.  Thinking our lives dull.  However everywhere we go we are being watched.  And not just in real-time.  The video content is stored so if we need to, we can access later. As time goes by more and more of our lives will be caught on video, until the point we can stitch them all together to create a complete view of our life, however interesting or boring it may be.

This does raise concerns, and in today’s world when we have concerns it is usually a question of how it is defined in our legal systems. When my life is in the public domain what rights do I have to say what can be viewed and what cannot?   Can someone take some of eth embarrassing clips of me and post to Twitter or on YouTube?  Many states have laws erected around hidden cameras and surveillance cameras.  More interesting may be that many states do not.  Video Surveillance is being discussed at both state and federal levels with arguments on both sides.  Employers would argue that video surveillance can be used most anywhere on corporate campuses (yes..including locker rooms and bathrooms).  The one that so far has been determined off-limits is intrusion into people’s private homes.  However it is apparent that the boarders of video surveillance are expanding not contracting.  Beyond places of business it has morphed into our daily lives.  It may be just the video app on your iPhone, but that in and of itself is a new form of surveillance.  When we got our iPad at home I was amazed at my young boys ability to quickly find and create home video’s with the iPad.  It seems video technology, like it or not is everywhere.  We may not be able to depend on our governments to regulate because to do so will require us to regulate individuals.  Can government keep up with the  fast pace of technological change?

When we think of technology it is an industry that never sleeps.  An industry built on dreams, of dreaming a brighter and better future for mankind.  Of course it is odd, to me, that these technological advancements often happen in our military establishment. Things that we associate with military advancement make their way back to domestic products.  That is what makes this area very difficult for lawmakers as congress does not work as fast as technology.  When they have get involved it is not clear if they had a positive impact (The Microsoft DOJ comes to mind).  When I think of video and where it is today and where it could be in five to ten years it is pretty daunting.  In a commercial today for healthcare they actor talks about swallowing a pill that has a camera that can capture and send video of your internal systems.  That is pretty useful and amazing.  What if the military could create a robotic fly or mosquito that had a camera?  That would be pretty cool for military intelligence?

Today when you look at directions via Google Maps the level of detail you can drill down to is pretty specific.  I can see my house, my lawn etc..But these are still just photographs.  However the question is how long before I can actually see activity going on around my house?  I have seen numerous demos that show 3-dimensional views of a city, what would the natural evolution of this be?  How long before it captures me leaving the house for work or to walk the kids to school? How zoomed in will the view be?  Will the camera view capture a smile or a frown on my face?  Who will be watching me?  Today when police arrest someone who may have stolen a TV from a home, they can view in detail where the person has been by viewing the recent log files of Google Maps, to show where the suspect has been recently.  This could be a boon for couples where one suspects the other of cheating…just a thought.

In the end how far will all this go?  All you have to do is imagine. In the end reality TV is going to die because we will all be on it 24 by 7.  Will we enter Orwell’s, “1984”?  Or maybe Suzanne Collin’s “The Hunger Games”.  We may have to, for I fear when we are all on video ,the reality will be that many of us will not be worth prime time viewing.  Will we need social security cards anymore when we can in real-time pull up fingerprints, or maybe more realistically swipe our thumb and have it cross referenced with some centralized (and distributed) master database?  What about a PIN for your ATM?  That brings some gruesome mobster kind of thought when your thumb is a valuable piece of information.  As has been pointed out there will be many benefits but at the same time we always have to weigh in with at what cost?  In today’s world we are great at figuring out the financial costs, but we seem to have lost sight of the social costs.  But then who needs to see what’s on mans mind since we seem to think we know everyone when they are on video.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann April 19, 2012

Well they are finally rolling out the Nokia Lumina 900 series running the Windows Phone OS. They are doing this with AT&T and offering cut-rate prices.  You will be able to pick these phones up for $100.  I think the price point reflects that fact that Nokia is desperate in the US market and Microsoft is desperate to catch up with Apple and Google. I It was Google VP (and former Microsoft GM) Vic Gudotra who tweeted when this unlikely partnership was announced, “Two turkey’s do not make an eagle”. For the record I support t turkeys, if you have seen them in the wild they are a damn cool bird.  But the quote did summarize the state of Nokia and Microsoft in the mobile space at the current time

I was actually meeting with an old co-worker at AT&T who let me handle the Windows Phone. It was the HTC Titan.  The screen was bigger than my iPhone3 (I am always running behind the latest and greatest). When the iPhone5 comes out I may upgrade.  In any case back to the HTC Titan.  The much discussed Metro interface was nice, is it a game changer? No, but nice and I guess it comes down to personal preference.  Some will like the iPhones, others Android and yet others will like the Metro interface.  There does seem to be high hopes around Windows 8.  I remain skeptical, but Microsoft has the clout to make the new operating system a success.  Not just on the desktop but the smart phone and the tablet.  Back to my friend, he let me hold the device. Which was the first time some one had let me do that.   Note to Microsoft phone people stop withe the demo’s and geeky talk, let people experience the phone.

Can either of these two companies create an Apple size comeback?  Nokia is more Apple like in that it is spiraling towards rock bottom.  Microsoft still has Windows and Office generating over $20 billion so though not a company with a lot of “panache”, they are not dying yet.  My fear for Nokia has always been the move away from software and going head to head with Samsung, LG, HTC and the Chinese handset manufacturers.  It will be hard to distinguish themselves as different from the others.  Of course they did do just that when they selected Microsoft as their phone OS vendor.  Nokia had also blown the US market years ago when they refused to make a flip phone.  For a decade Nokia was a much bigger provider outside the US than inside.  For a time it seemed to be ok, “hey we don’t need the US market”.  Odd, but it is what they did.  Then like so many things in mobility, the iPhone hit and changed the landscape.

Moving forward it is apparent that Nokia will need a tablet play as the idea of just providing smart phones is simply not enough.  Due to their relationship with Microsoft, Nokia is in a holding pattern until Windows 8 arrives in the fall.  If I have a concern here for Nokia/Microsoft it is that no one is holding off on their purchase of the new iPad 3 in hopes of a better Windows 8 tablet.  The iPad has garnered so much mind share that I think many people do not realize Microsoft and its OEM partners are coming out with a tablet.  It does not hurt that Apple stock is now trading over $600 a share and they just announced a quarterly dividend of $2.64 a share.

What about Microsoft in this space?  Well as discussed they will not go broke anytime soon, but this is a last stand in the phone space.  Never has Microsoft attached its sails to one strategic partner like it has with Nokia.  For Microsoft it is important that Nokia maintain and start to regrow its international footprint.  An area where Windows Phone has traditionally been weak.  It i also a major reason for partnering with Nokia.  Nokia invested early and heavily in India and China so it makes sense, this unique partnership. It also needs success in the US market, it only to offset the market presence of both Apple and Google.  Apple really rocked the industry with the iPhone, but no company was caught as off guard as Microsoft.  I was there at the time and there was a flippant view towards Apple in this space, thinking they were naive and would fail.  Revolutions happen and if you don’t anticipate them you will be over thrown.

In conclusion, the next 12-18 months will determine if this partnership will succeed or fail.  There will be challenges.  Microsoft has other mobile handset partners.  What if one of them makes the ultimate Windows Phone experience?  How quickly would Microsoft dump Nokia and how quickly would Nokia run to Google’s arms?  If share doe snot grow but remains stagnant when does one throw in the towel?  AT&T is the largest carrier and promoter of Windows Phone in the US, but how long will their commitment be if the Windows phone continues to falter?  Will Nokia and Microsoft be able to build up a strong developer community to build applications?  There are a lot of unanswered questions and only time will tell.  Some say this partnership needs to succeed, to create an alternative eco system to what Google and Apple provide.  I have always found this a perplexing and humorous notion.  Why do we need a third system?  That is something only the technical people say.  The “people” I cannot see really care one way or the other.  If they did care the Microsoft Zune would still be around.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann March 27, 2012

In his Mobile World Congress keynote in Barcelona, Ford Motor Company Chairman Bill Ford rolled some eyes with his thoughts on technology and the future of the automotive industry.  The move to driver-less vehicles, envisioning a future still in development but very much on the horizon.  To many this may seem far-fetched, a future beyond our years.  However Mr. Ford’s comments were  based on some sound statistical metrics.  With the world population set to grow from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050 and  automobiles set to grow from 1 billion on the road today to 4 billion by 2050.  In conjunction with these numbers it is expected people will continue to migrate to large metropolitan areas.  We are entering an era where we are going to be creating some major environmental issues and huge traffic congestion issues.  Is what Mr Ford touting revolutionary?

Well on the surface yes and I would argue and agree with Mr Ford that in time, we will enter a future where we are not as responsible for our driving as some would like to be.  Many cars today already come with a GPS system, many have satellite radio, have a connection for our iPhone so we can stream music via Pandora or play whatever we have purchased and loaded from iTunes.   As car technology matures the amount of data we will be able to capture, analyze and utilize will only increase.  We should be able to get a lot of information about drivers driving behavior. As cars move through the streets of America, we will also be able to capture information about the surroundings that they are traveling through.  Your insurance company would love to have this information so they could adjust your rates up or down.  A car is becoming a data collection device among other things.  How we manipulate and utilize that information will be a topic of hot discussion in the years to come.

The most dangerous thing about a car today is the people who drive them.  In fact it has pretty much been that way since Henry Ford rolled the first Model T’s off of the assembly line in Detroit.  The thing that makes humans interesting is their imperfections.  In most cases we inspire by doing the right thing or taking the right action.  However when we make the wrong decisions the results can be disastrous.  How many people are killed every year due to a drunk driving accident?  Or perhaps drivers who just have the thrill for speed or are just in a plain hurry and make reckless driving decisions?  Overall the statistics are pretty grim as is pointed out in Wired magazines article between 2001 and 2009, American roads claimed the lives of 369, 629 people. What if those choices were taken away?  To some (like myself), oh great joy.  I can just program in an address and let the vehicle get me there.  I might even be able to read a book or just enjoy the landscape on my drive.  No traffic issues as my auto computer has determined the quickest route to my destination base on up to the second traffic information received through the wireless network it receives.  My gas mileage will also be regulated and optimized, thus increasing my miles per gallon.  To those who scream at the thought of not being able to drive their beloved roadster and push the pedal to the metal I have but one phrase, “Get over it”.  As drivers you need to all understand.  Your precious driving ability can be summed up simply compared to what you will be competing with, “You suck”.  Your human, live with your imperfections. In the end technology moves forward gaining velocity as it does.  To try to stop or deny its progress is a waste of energy.  Look at the bright side you will now be able to text while driving.

Now that I have railed against everyone’s inadequacies I shall give you room to breathe.  When will all this happen?  As Mr. Ford has observed on his travels to the Silicon Valley, Detroit is in Michigan not California.  The entrepreneurial spirit is not evident in Detroit, at least not at the speed in which to make these changes happen.  The ability to shift and move quickly is not part of the old school automotive industry DNA.  This has always been a challenge for Detroit.  They did not see any of the oil shocks over the past four decades.  Every time oil prices go down they abandon ship on any typo of alternative fuel.  They seemingly have an amazing ability to not think about the future.  When you think of hybrid vehicles who do you think of?  The Toyota Prius.  There is about to be a slew of new competitors as both India and China get in the game.  Given their limited natural oil resources they are motivated to look at alternative fuels to feed their increasing upward mobile societies. Given the current price of gas (over $4 a gallon n Washington State). Are we looking within ten years?  Maybe.

The February issue of Wired magazine had an article regarding the state of robotic vehicles today.  Companies like Google are at work on creating the driver less experience on the roads of Silicon Valley.  They have prototypes on the road of the bay area today creating the experience of a vehicle with no driver.  Many auto manufacturer for years have had offices in the Silicon Valley to push technology into the vehicles we drive.  These include the likes of BMW and Mercedes.  Anyone who has had an older car can always marvel at the simplicity of the motor.  Look under the hood of today’s vehicle wonders is their room to out anything else in the vehicle’s engine space.  But cars are evolving as many come with new digital features with every iteration.  We can regulate temperature, get directions, satellite radio, cruise control,break systems, etc..It does raise a whole new set of regulatory issue that will need to be addressed. In Nevada they having already passed law regarding unmanned motor vehicles.  Many auto accidents today you can point to driver error.  What happens when you have a bug in the software that leads to an accident?  Do you then sue Chrysler?

The car, as Wired writer Tom Vanderbilt explains, is becoming a digital platform that we can, through the magic of software, create new value streams.   When the discussion of digital convergence first became a phrase we limited ourselves to media converging and being made available via the internet. But in the future it is apparent it will be far greater  than media, Technology will be pervasive in everything we touch.  We have entered an error where software in increasingly flying away from our desktops (Remember the Flying Toasters Screen Saver??).  Software will invade every aspect of our mechanized world in ways many have not imagined before.  The Americans beloved motor city automobile is no exception.  Detroit is a city as has well been documented that has struggled mightily since the oil shocks of the seventies.  A major US city that is actually shrinking as housing projects are being torn down and turned back into farm land.  As has always been the case in US history to see the future one only needs to look west.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann March 9, 2012