It seems not a day goes by in America where someone does not comment on how divided we have become as a nation. It seemingly grinds us to a halt and causes the worst of human emotions to bubble to the surface. As we raise our voices in opposition to our opponents we lose sight of our own beliefs as we find our emotional center dissolving with each utterance. We are now in the hands of the historians who down the road will write as to how American reached this epicenter of decay. At the end of the day it is the historians who will pass judgment. I can only imagine at the height of their power that Nazi Germany felt in their bones that history would be kind in the retelling of their story. However the historians had a different judgement of their time on earth. We are at that crossroads in the United States. Will our great experiment of democracy end in victory and happiness for its people or will it end in the decay of despair and a totalitarian state, a reminder of histories failures.
To be divided as a nation is not unique to the United States, nor is it new to the United States. Our own civil war makes that abundantly clear. In hindsight the American Civil War was not about states rights (as some have argued, notably Jefferson Davis), it was as Ulysses S Grant said in his memoir “only about the issue of slavery”. The border of the war was easy to define as the Mason-Dixon line divided North and South. Yes there were people on both sides who were either for or against slavery but the confederate states were all in the south and the union states all in the north. The history of the South and the “War of Northern Aggression” has been studied and written in great detail since in ended in 1865 and yet still influences this country to this day. Our black citizens still suffer the consequences of 1619 (when first slave came to America).
The figure of Donald Trump was meant to divide us, any utterance of unity on his part has always been self serving and never for the benefit of the masses. In his world view we can be united if we all simply follow him. He knows the problems and he has the answers. Democracy is about trust, dictatorship is about fear. So much of his campaigning has been based on tapping into that fear. A fear his fanatical base of MAGA supporters is all too happy to embrace. Feeling that they have been betrayed by their government. One could call fear a weak and baseless way to make decisions, but it is an emotion that will lead to irrational and emotional decisions. We watch this playing out day by day with cruel intention.
It is interesting that the worlds largest economy feels like it is being cheated by so many and that somehow we are the victims of a global conspiracy (or at least a Chinese conspiracy). We are the most prosperous nation on the planet, yet we have evolved towards a two class society of have’s and have nots. Killing the middle working class along the way. Gone are the days of the union man working at the automotive factory being able to buy a house and provide for his wife and two kids. It is a legacy of the fifties, that though romantic, was always based on a fantasy. This was post WWII and the world was rebuilding and we had the materials and the labour. It was fun but it could never last. When Milton Friedman uttered the phrase “The only social responsibility a corporation has is to maximize shareholders value”, the good times were gone and let the 1% of America feed there greed. Despite our self professed love of capitalism, it is ultimately a have and have not system. Many who espouse love for the free market are its most significant victims.
Today that former middle white working class lives in despair. Something well documented in Anne Case and Angus Deaton’s book “Deaths of Despair”. The fentanyl crisis has hit this group very hard. In 2013 there were 3105 Fentanyl deaths in the United States, by 2022 the number had jumped to 73,838 deaths. California had the most Fentanyl deaths (6,453) followed by Florida (5,083) and New York (4,950) but as a percentage West Virginia, 60.8 deaths per 100,00 people was a run away winner, sadly. One thing that is consistent when reading and watching shows on fentanyl is it happens in areas where opportunity is scarce and hope is lost. Add to this a highly potent, cheap and addictive drug and death becomes only a matter of time. Not an end of life but a way out of life.
A key for America has always been entrepreneurship. We have made it easy to start and build companies based on our citizens own effort and creativity. From the days of Henry Ford and JP Morgan to todays tech titans of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. It is what has made America unique and envied throughout the world. You can achieve your dreams as the US has provided a framework to allow you to dream big. In the dawn of the Gilded Age as the era of industrialization created new wealth, many were left at to beg for work and be thankful at receiving work. There was no regulation, no eight hour days were mandated. Healthcare? Retirement plans? If you worked for the mega rich, you served their interest. If you tried to unionize you would be struck down, sometimes violently. Adam Hochschild’s “American Midnight” is a great read on what was happening domestically in America during WWI. In many instances the threat of unions was met with violence and in some instances death.
Over time and in particular later during FDR’s administration the workers would receive protections and have the ability to form unions. Social Security was introduced to help people retire with something. This would lead to a post WWII economic boom in the United States. A time when all seemed good in America…if you were white. The auto industry boomed, the steel industry boomed, we even made televisions (remember RCA?)! The classic image was the family with TV Dinners sitting in front of the television. The life style was ideal. Husband works at the auto plant, wife stays home and makes dinner while raising two kids. They live in a nice house with two cars in a simple neighborhood. What could go wrong?
First civil unrest occurred as America had to pay the price of past sins. On trial was Jim Crowe. The legacy and tragedy of the American Civil War had not been laid to rest. Luckily a small Indian (India the country) had laid the foundation. Gandhi. His mantra of non-violent protest would become a symbol of the American Civil RIghts movement. It would inspire leaders like Martin Luther King, John Lewis and Bayard Rustin to name but a few and the images shared globally would paint a dark picture of the American experience. The images of Selma, Alabama are seared into the memory of this nation. A time when violence was used to keep a people down, based simply on the color of their skin. Many in America do not want to discuss this past as it provides a portrait of America that is not so perfect, but it is a part of the American journey and to avoid it is to do so at our own peril.
Going back to our economist friend Milton Friedman his goals of shareholder wealth would shred the middle class. Along with Dr Michael Porter’s “Theory of Competitive Advantage”, the age of outsourcing and offshoring had begun. I think what often gets lost is when you offshore work you are not just offshoring the manufacturing of a product, you are offshoring a supply chain. A basic business premise is “Building a product is easy, building a supply chain is very hard”. The American film classic “Tommy Boy” outlines this very well. Based in Sandusky, Ohio. Tommy works for his fathers company Callahan Auto, where they make break pads for America. This story has a happy ending and Callahan Auto and the Sandusky are saved. Nice Hollywood ending. The reality is most companies opted to outsource or offshore the work. This has led to the death of middle America. Many small towns in America, once thriving communities have been left in ruin. Little pink houses for you and me it is not.
The supply chain issues becomes most evident and painful when you discuss items of strategic importance. None more so than semi-conductors. It was Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments who in 1958 invented and created the first integrated circuit or microchip. This would be the foundational block of the modern technology industry. Companies that would follow, it what would become Silicon Valley, would be Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel to name but a significant few. Today we find transistors, semi-conductors, etc..in nearly everything, not just our basic tech of iPhones and laptops, but in vehicles, appliances. thermostats, etc.. The challenge is now that these tech heartbeats are not manufactured in the United States, most are manufactured offshore, primarily in Taiwan. The Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world leader. Depending on your source between 50-90 percent of semiconductors come from Taiwan, Founded by another Texas Instruments alum Morris Chang. The worry here is given China’s demand of reunification, if they were to invade Taiwan it would disrupt the global supply chain severely. One may think we should just manufacture in the US and I would agree, but the reality is it would take more than a decade to build and master a manufacturing plant and process like TSMC.
Abraham Lincoln said, “A house divided cannot stand”. The Civil War still is the largest catastrophe in US History with an estimated 618,222 deaths, though the numbers is believed to be higher. With where we are today could the US dissolve into another Civil War? It is a fair question to ask. The mere fact that it is mentioned in some circles is pause for concern, If it did would it be like our previous civil war? The simple answer is no. The American Civil War was divided by the Mason-Dixon line, The south had an economy tied to cotton and the labor force needed to pick the cotton was slave labor and had been for over 200 years, The north, on the other hand, was transforming its economy to something far greater as it was at the start of the industrial revolution. In todays America the division is between the major technology hubs and the fly over states, Though on a map it would look like the areas colored red would have a huge advantage they do not as they lack population density. My view is if civil war were to break out it would mirror in many ways the Spanish Civil War.
The Spanish Civil War has a romantic side to it from a US perspective. Many people of a left leaning nature would go join Lincoln’s Brigade to try and save the Spanish Republic against the fascist’s of Franco in the 1930’s. It sounds nice and was even more romanticized in Hemmingway’s ” For Whom the Bell Tolls”. However the Spanish Civil War was anything but romantic. It was estimated that over 500,000 people died. Some on the battle field and many by execution. The Fascists would capture people and if they belonged to a union or were a communist they often would be executed and buried in one of thousands of mass grave in Spain. Following Franco’s death it was decided in Spain not to try the past. Spain has never fully resolved its past with Franco and memories are still there in Spain from a period of atrocities. In many ways Spain is similar to many countries in that despite the years gone by at some point you have to come to terms with past crimes countries like Cambodia, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, South Africa, Guatemala, Indonesia, etc..In the US I could see this type of violence erupting on political, sexuality and racial lines, there would be no borders just communities.
The next ten years could shape the rest of the century, There is much to ponder. Will China succeed the United States as the pre-eminent global power? After the end of the Cold War we lived in a world order dominated by one: The United States of America. Within the last ten years that had changed to a multi-polar world order, that now includes China. Russia wants desperately to be viewed as a leader much as it was when it was the Soviet Union. Given its shrinking population and relatively small economy, not to mention its disastrous military performance in Ukraine I view that as unlikely. India would be a far better candidate. The biggest challenge for the US right now given its disfunction is are we accelerating China’s ascension to the top of the leader board as THE global power? RIght now given our daily change in policy – domestic policies, global tariffs, immigration policies, monetary policies, etc..it is hard to know what the next day will bring and for our adversaries this means there is opportunity. If one thing holds us back it is short term thinking versus the long term plan.
The thing about history is that there are periods where a large percentage of a population can go mad with self doubt and look for a safe place, this place usually resides in the past. The issue with the past is it can be romanticized and made greater than it really was. In the US the post WWII era is often looked at as somewhat ideal. As stated earlier it had the all-american family with a house, two cars, a television, good paying jobs and a clear path to retirement. It had its challenges such as the emerging and increasingly vocal Civil RIghts movement, but overall the American worker was living the life of happiness. Since the mid sixties we have slowly been moving towards a path of anger and violence which has caused us to lose sight of the American dream as it has started to darken into more of a American nightmare. In Neil Howe and William Swanson’s great book “The Fourth Turning” they outline how histories curve goes through repetitive stages over 80-90 years. The first being Hope and Happiness (Think post WWII). the Second being the Awakening (Vietnam thru Reagan) , the Third being the Unraveling (The fall of the Berlin Wall and communism) and the finally the Fourth being Crisis. We are 80 years removed from WWII and given recent domestic and global issues feels like we are at the cusp of a crisis – previous ones being WWII, The American Civil War and The American Revolution. As Mark Twain said “History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes”
Good Night and Good Luck
Hans Henrik Hoffmann June 7, 2025
Hans Hoffmann's Blog 