Tag: politics

Greenland’s Emerging Mining Prospects

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Greenland has always been a land that when you see it on a map looks very large and very cold. Frankly for many centuries most people did not pay attention to it. Then the impact of climate change started to be felt. With disappearing glaciers the surface beneath began to be revealed and the minerals underneath the earth began to be coveted. In an era where the sins of the colonial past resurface daily, Greenland has transformed from nomad lands. It is now strategically important. In this scenario, the world’s great self promoter President Donald Trump, has said he will either buy Greenland or if necessary take by force. Not a very diplomatic move. The reasons for are strategic. They are also fueled by greed, America’s Achilles heel. The consequences will be great and many.

If you look at a brief history of the Greenland it follow a traditional projectory. As the European powers looked to expand and colonize new lands they sailed west. Greenland was colonized as far back as the 9th Century. It was Erik the Red who set forth from Iceland in 980 and landed in southeast Greenland. Norway and Denmark established a presence in Greenland in the 1700’s. Like many nations of the era they were trying to become colonial powers. Though Greenland is part of the Danish realm this was only formally established in 1953, following WWII. Since 1979 Greenland has enjoyed home rule. In 1985, it opted out of the European Economic Community. Greenland had become a part of the EEC when Denmark joined in 1973. Since that time debates have been had held on establishing Greenland’s independence. The challenge for Greenland in this scenario would be it would be a large land with small population. The current population of Greenland is a little over 56,000. This is just a small city in America.

Minerals are important to the global economy. Nearly everything we use as consumers has some type of mineral. A lithium-ion battery needs cobalt. Copper is used in construction, electrical products etc..Barite is used as a weighting agent in fluids used in the drilling of oil and natural gas wells. There are 84 strategic minerals that are tracked by the US Geological Survey. They can be found here. Some we have abundant in the US and others we do not. Cobalt comes primarily from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC accounts for 74% of world cobalt. Most of this is exported to China. If you own a smartphone cobalt is a very important mineral in your life. If you look through the geological data China leads in a number of areas. The US has understood this and is trying to strong arm deals like the one recently done with Ukraine. Canada and Greenland are being threatened. They are key areas for providing the US with help in mining for critical minerals. Rather than do a trade deal why not just take them over? This seems to be the Trump logic.

Coming back to Greenland what would we mine for? The New York Times reported in March 2025 that, despite dozens of exploratory projects, there are only two active mines in Greenland. The European Commission did a survey of Greenland and that 25 of 34 minerals deemed “critical raw materials” were found in Greenland. Some of the minerals included are copper, cobalt, lithium, titanium etc.. There are already many large companies lining up for these rights. A big problem is the necessary infrastructure to support mining operations. Roads? Rail LInes? Ports? WIth such a small population, which equals a small work force, it is not surprising. To mine Greenland would require a significant capital investment in infrastructure. There are big companies lining up either investing or ready to invest in Greenland.

The race for precious mineral sis nothing new. In the Belgium Congo they went mad for rubber. As outlined in Adam Hochschild’s excellent book “King Leopold’s Ghost” the small country of Belgium went mad with greed. The winners were the Belgium’s and the losers were the natives of the Belgian Congo. As the 20th Century became about oil, the colonial powers raced across the planet. They looked to secure oil for their rapidly growing economies. The winners were the western powers and the oil monarchs who would make alliances. The losers were the citizens of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc…to name but a few. Daniel Yergin’s book “The Prize” covers the history of oil in great detail. There are countless other examples like the California Gold Rush, Cobalt in the DRC. etc..In the end they have one thing in common the race to make a fortune. The race for minerals has also taken on a strategic function with the race to be the dominant AI superpower. If and when a significant deposit of strategic minerals is discovered in Greenland it will be hard for super powers to resists. Whether they choose a diplomatic route or military route will be the question to watch.

Greenland is in a tough situation. There is a desire for some people in Greenland for independence from Denmark. They enjoy many of the benefits of Danish society, such as Health Care. However, the desire for self-determination is strong. In today’s world, democracy is increasingly under threat. The challenge of being an independent nation could not be more daunting. As stated with only a little over 56,000 people it would have next to nothing in self defense. Greenland would be entirely dependent on alliances. The current US administration would provide the worlds greatest defense, it just would not be an alliance. It would be a conquest. President Trump even sent a letter saying the US would treat native Greenlanders very well. Asking any Native American if they trust the US government to take care of them would provoke deafening eye rolls. According to the National Equity Atlas Native Americans have the highest poverty rate in US at 22%. The US social programs are many but calling them an overwhelming success would be a stretch.

Donald Trump announced he was going to buy Greenland from Denmark in his first term. This announcement came out of nowhere. It was prior to a planned state visit to Denmark. Danish Prime MInister Mette Fredricksen’s response was swift, “Greenland is not for sale”. This prompted a typical Trump response now fondly known as a “Trumpertantrum”. State visit canceled and some name calling directed at the Danish Prime Minister. Maturity seems to have become a word lost to the english language. Well at least in America. However, as fate would have it, the issue would not go away and we elected Trump again and now suffer the consequences. Trump has renewed the discussion. Sending his second in command to Greenland to deliver a letter from the President, A letter veiled in lies. Saying how good we would treat the native population, but offer no details. That is because there are none.

The flip side is to stay the course with Denmark, A nation of 5.5 million people, but also part of NATO alliance, This creates confusion as the US is part of NATO. If the US invaded Greenland what would happen to NATO? Would America just being flexing its muscles and say we will be making the rules? We fund most of NATO. Would this just mark the beginning of the end for NATO? What would happen to US alliances? Who would be our allies if we gave up our NATO alliances? It always seems with this administration they are forever playing the victim. NATO has screwed us. I will give this admin credit. They have forced NATO allies to live up to their commitment and increase their commitment in finding NATO. Throw in tariffs and instead of helping, you are now hurting relationships.

Owning Greenland is the dream of a few. There is cause for concern as minerals are becoming more of a strategic asset and China is leading the way. There is ample opportunity in Greenland and also the question of what we don’t know. Denmark is a small land and could not possibly defend Greenland if invaded. They are also one of America’s allies. Like many things in the Trump world that does not seem to matter. Other countries covet Greenland as well such as Russia and China. Could the European Union invest in Greenland? They would have to balance the discussion with their climate change initiatives. Mining is destructive process. My one viewpoint on this is that Greenland can not go on its own. It will need to determine who it trusts and where it is best served. Of course if conquered none of that will matter.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann Sept 8, 2025

Redistricting America

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It is one of those debates that has increased with America’s social division. It all deals with the US House of Representatives and the 435 seats contained within the House. A President is dependent on the house to pass legislation, budgets etc..It was one of the points the founding fathers had in creating a system of checks and balances. Redistricting occurs every 10 years in practice. Usually, the party in power in the House of Representatives redraws the map to its political advantage. For Republicans luck has been in their corner as they have controlled the House at these critical moments. In this day and age, where we can track votes by individual household, you can be very specific and exact in your drawing. As America has become more polarized and politicized this redrawing has become more important and more contentious.

Which brings us to Texas. We know the President is always watching the polls. In fact he is always watching the television. When poll numbers come out that make the November midterms look unfavorable. He knows without control of the House his agenda falls apart. He panics. He loves executive power, frankly just power. He calls Texas Governor Gregg Abbott. He says, let’s redraw Texas now. This way they can secure an additional 5 seats in Congress and secure Republican rule. Plain and simple this is power at work. Governor Abbott appearing very weak, simply rolls over and does the Presidents bidding.

The follow up will be felt in California and New York. California Governor Gavin Newsom has been quick to respond. Partly because he sees that he has to and partly because it affirms his own Presidential aspirations. This could also spill over to New York. The danger seems obvious. A domino effect of states redistricting to favor one party. We could rig a system of Blue only states and Red only states. It would be the beginning of the end to American democracy. Going by current electoral map it would put Blue at 276, so a razor thins margin. For those counting you need 270 to carry house. This however is not a world we would want to live in. It would lead to loss of freedoms. It is also the delicate balance of how much do you want to empower the states versus the federal government.

The ego of power has been a human weakness for centuries. At its roots has been the desire for a man to rule over the lives of others. To determine what there purpose shall be. What their opinions shall fall in line with. To determine their level of happiness. To determine their fate. To embolden the cult of personality. Yet time and time again someone or some group figures out how to manipulate the general population into complacency. Right now in the US it seems as if we are just watching. There are few protests. A lot of social outrage, but this has not led to any action. In America we are complacent. We are very individual. As long as something does not interfere with our daily lives, we take little notice. This is how dictatorship works. It loves silence. Enrage your supporters. Hitler did this to perfection in his run up to absolute power in Germany. Though those supporters may be in the minority, they seemingly capture the day.

This is a moment, frankly there have been many of late, of what do we stand for as a nation? The President takes an oath to the Constitution. Our military swears an oath to the Constitution. In our current environment there seem a strong desire to skirt the Constitution. In order to appear to get things done we bend the rules. In recent times that has been through the executive order. The effort to redistrict is not about democracy but a plain and simple power grab. Yet most of the public remains silent. Silence has consequences, I am not sure when the country will wake up to what is happening in America. If and when it does will it be too late? Redistricting used to be a procedural process but over time has become a political one. If we turn a blind eye, the America we wake up in will be very different. It will not be the one we have known.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann August 29th 2025

The Russian Play

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Russia is a country steeped in its own history. Having been part of Europe but never really being adopted into Europe. Perhaps this could be a simple geography question as most of Russia is in Asia. Peter the Great pushed for a more European Russia. If you read Tolstoy’s “War and Peace” you will remember the Russian aristocrats when together spoke French. However, calling Russia part of the European fabric would be a stretch. We had the cold war which led to the creation of NATO. This literally created a wall aka the Iron Curtain. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we initially saw closer ties to Europe. Over decades, these relations slowly declined between the two parties. The biggest reason was Russia’s return to its roots: dictatorship.

Vladimir Putin has cemented his status as the central figure in European power plays. For over two decades he has been the only figure that mattered when discussing Russia. Having read several books on Putin it was an unlikely rise to power. A failed KGB representative decries the collapse of the Soviet Union. Through sheer will, he then emerges as an unlikely successor to Boris Yeltsin. At first new and uncertain he has used his KGB training to his benefit. Those in Russia who oppose him are imprisoned or murdered. Funny how so many who have gone against him have jumped from high rise balconies or windows to their deaths. Yet Putin has continued to believe Russia is a great power worthy of global respect. It really has only two things. A large nuclear arsenal and oil. But the age old desire for power and building an empire continues on.

Putin has put this plan into practice. Seizing the Crimea from Ukraine and watching the world do nothing. This only emboldened him. Then on February 24th, 2022 Putin tries to press his luck and invades the Ukraine. What was supposed to take 2 weeks has now run over three years. He has played the long game and roped allies like North Korea to help in his battle. Purchased drones from Iran. The Russian military thought to be one the world should fear has been abysmal. At times behaving more like Huns than a well oiled military machine. Drinking, looting and raping along the way. To Ukraine’s credit they have fought the good fight. They have had to play rough with politics as the US government cannot seem to make up its mind. This extends across Biden and Trump. In war you cannot have constraints and yet the US put a lot on Ukraine.

Now there is talk of peace. Donald Trump thinks he is leading the peace negotiations. But his statements show he is but the puppet. Heading to Alaska it was all about getting a cease fire deal with Russia and Ukraine. Now it’s a peace deal. Russia gets territory they do not even control. Ukraine will also be barred from NATO. This is almost Putin’s dream deal. What he would prefer is a complete surrender and control of Ukraine. He would have access to precious minerals and the black soils of Ukraine. The President looks weak. He seems to change direction on a daily basis. Being a transactional President he lacks core values. He wants a Nobel Peace Prize he just does not want to put in the work.

None of this is surprising coming from Putin. He has pushed his luck time and time again. Knowing that the west will do anything to avoid war with Russia. He took over Crimea. Got some sanctions and a warning. Now he pushed into Ukraine and actually may come away with something. What next? The Baltic States? Though obvious Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of the NATO alliance. Any attack would trigger Article 5. Which raises the question would Trump adhere to it? He has been skeptical in the past of supporting Article 5. Which makes it all the more tempting to Putin to try and push his luck.

There is blame to go around. The NATO Alliance has becomes too dependent on the US for its defense. They were having trouble even getting to 2% of GDP for defense spend. Now some are pushing to go up to 5%. What the rest of NATO has lost is time. They need to build up their defense industrial complex. Building industry takes time. The US is an example. It offshored all its semiconductor industry. Now, it realizes it has created a security threat. Semiconductors, which are in most everything, are manufactured in Taiwan. One thing that concerns be is the destruction of alliances. It is a big world and only the naive choose to go it alone.

In the current round of negotiations it is hard to see a successful end game. Peace will only leave resentment. Zelenskyy faces a difficult political task. His main and most important ally, the US, cannot seem to make up its mind. Trump is likely still angry. Zelenskyy would not help him fabricate dirt on Hunter Biden. This was for Trump’s failed reelection campaign. Grudges bare no fruit. Putin is doing what Putin always does, buys time. In the end if Ukraine cedes territory to Russia, it will be perceived yet again as weak. Weak being the western democracies, which includes the United States. Pursuing peace at any cost comes with a price.

I expect Trump to give Putin a victory. It was apparent in Alaska when the red carpet was rolled out for Putin. It was apparent when after meeting Zelenskyy and NATO allies Trump had to immediately call Putin. The leash is on and Putin is holding it. This will be a pivotal moment for Western Europe. In history they have battled Russia many times. Yet this has been dormant since the end of WWII. Though NATO has been one of histories great alliances the group was overly dependent on one: the United States. Now it will be up to the rest of Europe to rise up and face Russia, perhaps on their own. The United States is no longer the dependable ally it once was. Our own system of leadership changes every four to eight years has a limit. The difference in foreign policy between Democrats and Republicans was manageable for many decades. The changes made by each admin were small. In today’s America that is no longer the case. The changes in attitude are dramatic, perhaps no conflict has surfaced this more than Ukraine.

Sacrificing global leadership was not supposed to be easy. But in a administration focused on America first it is happening quickly. In the Trump world he believes the American economy is the gold standard. Which is why his tariff fantasies may work in the short run. But he does so at the cost of not understanding geopolitics. Alliances do matter. They mattered in WWI. The mattered in WWII. They mattered in the Cold War. Yes they were expensive. It was not a transactional deal. But they pushed the world toward peace. Dictatorship’s do not have a good history. Looking to dictators to solve world problems and building lasting peace will not succeed. Putin knows this. Trump proudly does not read. He will learn the hard way and the world will suffer because of it.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann August 19, 2025

Trouble with Tariffs

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It seems not a day goes by where we are not inundated with the word “tariffs”. Not that they are new, but that they are being used in new and naive ways. The American public is being fed a plethora of great and terrible news based on the messenger. Is it a revenue generating machine or a tax? Who is paying? To be clear here it is not the exporter. Does it give us leverage in the negotiations? A short versus long term question. Manufacturing will be brought back to America and create jobs. We will never be going back to the fifties, but some will try. Foreign nations with a trade surplus with the United States have been screwing us for decades. Maximizing shareholder wealth would say otherwise. Will inflation come back with a vengeance? It almost certainly will. In the end we are left with uncertainty. Global markets hate uncertainty.

Tariffs are pretty simple, they are a tax on American consumers. The Country levies a 25% tariff which the importer pays upon receipt of the goods. The importer than must decide do I eat the cost of the increase in cost or pass onto to consumers. Since eating the cost eats into profits the latter is usually preferred. Tariffs were one of those things you learned about in business school. A pretty simple device for aiding domestic industry. The steel industry was always a good case study. Unable to compete against foreign competitors from South Korea and Japan. The US government many times has issued tariffs to help make US Steel producers more competitive with foreign competition. But this is a individual industry case. Today we are looking at Tariffs more broadly. Blanket tariffs on entire countries.

One thing that gets underestimated in this disputes is foreign nationalism. In Denmark for example they are learning to not to be dependent on US manufactured or produced goods. They do not need Coca-Cola they have local colas they can turn to. On the labels of goods it is marked if it is made in European Union. The arrogance of the US is the belief that the world cannot live without us. This is always mystifying to me (USAID could be the subject of another post). Can a German citizen live without Nike? Probably very well. The Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, out lined to her a country a whole list of alternatives to American goods. Buy Mexican…sounds kinda familiar. Countries when challenged or threatened look inward for solutions

China is the big target with tariffs. China has the largest trade surplus with the United States. In 2024 the United States had a goods trade deficit with China of $295.4 billion, according to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) (.gov). This represents a 5.8% increase, or $16.3 billion, compared to the previous year. A massive amount by any stretch of the imagination. China also holds $784.3 Billion in US Treasury Bills. This is down from the peak in November 2014 of $1.3 Trillion. During this Trump tantrum they have not played along. Though it looks like Trump will be visiting China in the near future. The difference with China is that it is the world’s second largest economy. It does have levers it can pull, unlike other nations. Given that we are adversaries I think it odd that China buys US Treasuries thus funding the US war machine. Though the downward direction I expect to continue. This would mean the United States needs someone else to pick up the tab. China also plays the currency markets. China pegged its currency from 1997 to 2005 to the U.S. dollar but since has managed its currency against a basket of currencies. The effect of the peg and the low currency is that Chinese exports are cheaper and, therefore, more attractive compared to those of other nations. China is investing heavily in tech and competing aggressively with the US. Thinking that China would bend the knee to US pressure was never a wise strategy.

The biggest issue facing the world is US leadership. In three years when there is another election the administration will change. Trump says he will try to change the election system. He wants to run again, however, he will be 82 years old. Thus the world can play the long game and wait until they get a more favorable alternative. The US capitalist system is designed for the short run. The two part election system is designed for the short run. As former House Speaker Tip O’Niel said, all politics is local. Most voters want to know, “What have you done for me lately”? Countries like China are thousands of years old. A decade is but a blip in time. WIll tariffs generate success for the US? I am skeptical as it has created an environment where the US is viewed as not trustworthy. The costs will be passed to US consumers, effectively a tax. Higher costs equals inflation and no Presidential candidate survives inflation. Just ask Joe Biden. In my view when it comes to Tariff’s 101 the current admin has a failing grade. They are treating the public as if they are dumb. We can read and the logic of tariffs is not that difficult. We have come across as a uncivil society. When you are the largest economy on the planet it is hard to argue you are being screwed. Threatening trading partners will have long term consequences. I am not too concerned about the US economy in the next 1-2 years but in the next 4 to 5 years….yes I am.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann

August 6, 2025

Epstein’s Political Inconvenience

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I guess I am a bit pissed that this Epstein controversy is even an issue. Not because I believe the sitting President was not involved, but because I believed he was involved. To bring everyone up to speed this has become a big issue over the past couple of weeks. Pam Bondi, the Attorney General, said she would release the list of Jeffrey Epstein clients. It was sitting on her desk. Then suddenly there was an about face and there is nothing to see here. No list and Epstein committed suicide back in 2019. To set the table I am going to focus on the former not the latter. I guess the question is we have known all about this for some time (like decades). Nothing was done, many stood on the sidelines and remained silent. Yet when political opportunity arises it is time for a inquest.

The crimes committed by Epstein were numerous and documented. There was an excellent series on Netflix and an even better book by Julie K Brown “Perversion of Justice”. We have a court case brought against his former lover, lead recruiter and best friend Ghislaine Maxwell. In the end leading to her conviction. What bugs me the most is the now of this all. We all know that Epstein was allowed to operate for years. Developing a system of recruiting young under aged girls to his predatory lair. We know he was busted in 2007 in a FBI led investigation. Only to have then Florida Attorney General Alexander Acosta agree to a plea deal. The victims were not notified of this plea deal. Why? We can only guess at this point. Epstein had been operating his recruitment of young, under aged girls for a decade. Based on flight records, we know he had been transporting these girls between multiple locations. These include his Island in the Caribbean, New York, South Florida, New Mexico, and Paris. Alexander Acosta would later be appointed Labor Secretary by Trump. He would resign less than two weeks after the arrest of Jeffrey Epstein. All I can remember was him standing at the podium during his press conference with his wife and two young daughters. What was he thinking?

We know long lists of people who attended his parties, vacationed at his island. These are very wealthy and powerful individuals. Understandably who do not want their reputations ruined. The air around the ultra wealthy is thick with “I am successful and therefore should be perceived as good”. The fallacy of modern aged wealth, but maybe it has just always been that way. The list is made trick as it has no party affiliation just dollar and power affiliation. Names like Clinton, Trump, Gates, Decaprio, Prince Andrew, Kevin Spacey, etc…The thing about wealthy folks is they have PR people who are focused on maintaining their saintly image. Obviously association with Epstein goes against that image.

The current state of politics is to rip whoever is in power down. I find it like throwing darts at a board to see what sticks. In Trump’s world the Epstein issue has found the board and stuck. The MAGA supporters are even pissed about this. Democrats are weighing in saying, “release the files we need the truth”. It seems convenient. Trump says he his relationship with Epstein ended years ago. Which it did. Problem is by then he had spent too much time with Epstein. There is video evidence all over YouTube. If anyone had the guts they would have torn this down long ago. Instead we are left with vague requests and answers by a bunch of cowards. On both sides of the political aisle. We are a country who historically prides ourselves on the rule of law. The right for justice. It would seem it only goes so far.

Virginia Giuffre committed suicide this year on April 25, 2025. She was one of the leaders in the case against Jeffrey Epstein. She had the courage to try and take Epstein down. She originally was recruited while working at Mar-a-Lago. She would be trafficked by Epstein and Maxwell, which included the now famous photo with Prince Andrew. She would escape Epstein, fall in love, have three kids and live in Australia. In the end life’s horrific scars would be too much. Virginia is but one of many girls who were trafficked, who were raped, who were dehumanized. Many of their stories remain hidden for fear of coming forward. To a bunch of educated, wealthy elite they were merely toys. The only fear these elite have is for the broader public to know what they really are, pedophiles.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann July 22, 2025