Russia is a country steeped in its own history. Having been part of Europe but never really being adopted into Europe. Perhaps this could be a simple geography question as most of Russia is in Asia. Peter the Great pushed for a more European Russia. If you read Tolstoy’s “War and Peace” you will remember the Russian aristocrats when together spoke French. However, calling Russia part of the European fabric would be a stretch. We had the cold war which led to the creation of NATO. This literally created a wall aka the Iron Curtain. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we initially saw closer ties to Europe. Over decades, these relations slowly declined between the two parties. The biggest reason was Russia’s return to its roots: dictatorship.
Vladimir Putin has cemented his status as the central figure in European power plays. For over two decades he has been the only figure that mattered when discussing Russia. Having read several books on Putin it was an unlikely rise to power. A failed KGB representative decries the collapse of the Soviet Union. Through sheer will, he then emerges as an unlikely successor to Boris Yeltsin. At first new and uncertain he has used his KGB training to his benefit. Those in Russia who oppose him are imprisoned or murdered. Funny how so many who have gone against him have jumped from high rise balconies or windows to their deaths. Yet Putin has continued to believe Russia is a great power worthy of global respect. It really has only two things. A large nuclear arsenal and oil. But the age old desire for power and building an empire continues on.
Putin has put this plan into practice. Seizing the Crimea from Ukraine and watching the world do nothing. This only emboldened him. Then on February 24th, 2022 Putin tries to press his luck and invades the Ukraine. What was supposed to take 2 weeks has now run over three years. He has played the long game and roped allies like North Korea to help in his battle. Purchased drones from Iran. The Russian military thought to be one the world should fear has been abysmal. At times behaving more like Huns than a well oiled military machine. Drinking, looting and raping along the way. To Ukraine’s credit they have fought the good fight. They have had to play rough with politics as the US government cannot seem to make up its mind. This extends across Biden and Trump. In war you cannot have constraints and yet the US put a lot on Ukraine.
Now there is talk of peace. Donald Trump thinks he is leading the peace negotiations. But his statements show he is but the puppet. Heading to Alaska it was all about getting a cease fire deal with Russia and Ukraine. Now it’s a peace deal. Russia gets territory they do not even control. Ukraine will also be barred from NATO. This is almost Putin’s dream deal. What he would prefer is a complete surrender and control of Ukraine. He would have access to precious minerals and the black soils of Ukraine. The President looks weak. He seems to change direction on a daily basis. Being a transactional President he lacks core values. He wants a Nobel Peace Prize he just does not want to put in the work.
None of this is surprising coming from Putin. He has pushed his luck time and time again. Knowing that the west will do anything to avoid war with Russia. He took over Crimea. Got some sanctions and a warning. Now he pushed into Ukraine and actually may come away with something. What next? The Baltic States? Though obvious Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of the NATO alliance. Any attack would trigger Article 5. Which raises the question would Trump adhere to it? He has been skeptical in the past of supporting Article 5. Which makes it all the more tempting to Putin to try and push his luck.
There is blame to go around. The NATO Alliance has becomes too dependent on the US for its defense. They were having trouble even getting to 2% of GDP for defense spend. Now some are pushing to go up to 5%. What the rest of NATO has lost is time. They need to build up their defense industrial complex. Building industry takes time. The US is an example. It offshored all its semiconductor industry. Now, it realizes it has created a security threat. Semiconductors, which are in most everything, are manufactured in Taiwan. One thing that concerns be is the destruction of alliances. It is a big world and only the naive choose to go it alone.
In the current round of negotiations it is hard to see a successful end game. Peace will only leave resentment. Zelenskyy faces a difficult political task. His main and most important ally, the US, cannot seem to make up its mind. Trump is likely still angry. Zelenskyy would not help him fabricate dirt on Hunter Biden. This was for Trump’s failed reelection campaign. Grudges bare no fruit. Putin is doing what Putin always does, buys time. In the end if Ukraine cedes territory to Russia, it will be perceived yet again as weak. Weak being the western democracies, which includes the United States. Pursuing peace at any cost comes with a price.
I expect Trump to give Putin a victory. It was apparent in Alaska when the red carpet was rolled out for Putin. It was apparent when after meeting Zelenskyy and NATO allies Trump had to immediately call Putin. The leash is on and Putin is holding it. This will be a pivotal moment for Western Europe. In history they have battled Russia many times. Yet this has been dormant since the end of WWII. Though NATO has been one of histories great alliances the group was overly dependent on one: the United States. Now it will be up to the rest of Europe to rise up and face Russia, perhaps on their own. The United States is no longer the dependable ally it once was. Our own system of leadership changes every four to eight years has a limit. The difference in foreign policy between Democrats and Republicans was manageable for many decades. The changes made by each admin were small. In today’s America that is no longer the case. The changes in attitude are dramatic, perhaps no conflict has surfaced this more than Ukraine.
Sacrificing global leadership was not supposed to be easy. But in a administration focused on America first it is happening quickly. In the Trump world he believes the American economy is the gold standard. Which is why his tariff fantasies may work in the short run. But he does so at the cost of not understanding geopolitics. Alliances do matter. They mattered in WWI. The mattered in WWII. They mattered in the Cold War. Yes they were expensive. It was not a transactional deal. But they pushed the world toward peace. Dictatorship’s do not have a good history. Looking to dictators to solve world problems and building lasting peace will not succeed. Putin knows this. Trump proudly does not read. He will learn the hard way and the world will suffer because of it.
Good Night and Good Luck
Hans Henrik Hoffmann August 19, 2025
Hans Hoffmann's Blog 