Tag: history

Redistricting America

Published on by hansh51Leave a comment

It is one of those debates that has increased with America’s social division. It all deals with the US House of Representatives and the 435 seats contained within the House. A President is dependent on the house to pass legislation, budgets etc..It was one of the points the founding fathers had in creating a system of checks and balances. Redistricting occurs every 10 years in practice. Usually, the party in power in the House of Representatives redraws the map to its political advantage. For Republicans luck has been in their corner as they have controlled the House at these critical moments. In this day and age, where we can track votes by individual household, you can be very specific and exact in your drawing. As America has become more polarized and politicized this redrawing has become more important and more contentious.

Which brings us to Texas. We know the President is always watching the polls. In fact he is always watching the television. When poll numbers come out that make the November midterms look unfavorable. He knows without control of the House his agenda falls apart. He panics. He loves executive power, frankly just power. He calls Texas Governor Gregg Abbott. He says, let’s redraw Texas now. This way they can secure an additional 5 seats in Congress and secure Republican rule. Plain and simple this is power at work. Governor Abbott appearing very weak, simply rolls over and does the Presidents bidding.

The follow up will be felt in California and New York. California Governor Gavin Newsom has been quick to respond. Partly because he sees that he has to and partly because it affirms his own Presidential aspirations. This could also spill over to New York. The danger seems obvious. A domino effect of states redistricting to favor one party. We could rig a system of Blue only states and Red only states. It would be the beginning of the end to American democracy. Going by current electoral map it would put Blue at 276, so a razor thins margin. For those counting you need 270 to carry house. This however is not a world we would want to live in. It would lead to loss of freedoms. It is also the delicate balance of how much do you want to empower the states versus the federal government.

The ego of power has been a human weakness for centuries. At its roots has been the desire for a man to rule over the lives of others. To determine what there purpose shall be. What their opinions shall fall in line with. To determine their level of happiness. To determine their fate. To embolden the cult of personality. Yet time and time again someone or some group figures out how to manipulate the general population into complacency. Right now in the US it seems as if we are just watching. There are few protests. A lot of social outrage, but this has not led to any action. In America we are complacent. We are very individual. As long as something does not interfere with our daily lives, we take little notice. This is how dictatorship works. It loves silence. Enrage your supporters. Hitler did this to perfection in his run up to absolute power in Germany. Though those supporters may be in the minority, they seemingly capture the day.

This is a moment, frankly there have been many of late, of what do we stand for as a nation? The President takes an oath to the Constitution. Our military swears an oath to the Constitution. In our current environment there seem a strong desire to skirt the Constitution. In order to appear to get things done we bend the rules. In recent times that has been through the executive order. The effort to redistrict is not about democracy but a plain and simple power grab. Yet most of the public remains silent. Silence has consequences, I am not sure when the country will wake up to what is happening in America. If and when it does will it be too late? Redistricting used to be a procedural process but over time has become a political one. If we turn a blind eye, the America we wake up in will be very different. It will not be the one we have known.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann August 29th 2025

Trouble with Tariffs

Published on by hansh51Leave a comment

It seems not a day goes by where we are not inundated with the word “tariffs”. Not that they are new, but that they are being used in new and naive ways. The American public is being fed a plethora of great and terrible news based on the messenger. Is it a revenue generating machine or a tax? Who is paying? To be clear here it is not the exporter. Does it give us leverage in the negotiations? A short versus long term question. Manufacturing will be brought back to America and create jobs. We will never be going back to the fifties, but some will try. Foreign nations with a trade surplus with the United States have been screwing us for decades. Maximizing shareholder wealth would say otherwise. Will inflation come back with a vengeance? It almost certainly will. In the end we are left with uncertainty. Global markets hate uncertainty.

Tariffs are pretty simple, they are a tax on American consumers. The Country levies a 25% tariff which the importer pays upon receipt of the goods. The importer than must decide do I eat the cost of the increase in cost or pass onto to consumers. Since eating the cost eats into profits the latter is usually preferred. Tariffs were one of those things you learned about in business school. A pretty simple device for aiding domestic industry. The steel industry was always a good case study. Unable to compete against foreign competitors from South Korea and Japan. The US government many times has issued tariffs to help make US Steel producers more competitive with foreign competition. But this is a individual industry case. Today we are looking at Tariffs more broadly. Blanket tariffs on entire countries.

One thing that gets underestimated in this disputes is foreign nationalism. In Denmark for example they are learning to not to be dependent on US manufactured or produced goods. They do not need Coca-Cola they have local colas they can turn to. On the labels of goods it is marked if it is made in European Union. The arrogance of the US is the belief that the world cannot live without us. This is always mystifying to me (USAID could be the subject of another post). Can a German citizen live without Nike? Probably very well. The Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, out lined to her a country a whole list of alternatives to American goods. Buy Mexican…sounds kinda familiar. Countries when challenged or threatened look inward for solutions

China is the big target with tariffs. China has the largest trade surplus with the United States. In 2024 the United States had a goods trade deficit with China of $295.4 billion, according to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) (.gov). This represents a 5.8% increase, or $16.3 billion, compared to the previous year. A massive amount by any stretch of the imagination. China also holds $784.3 Billion in US Treasury Bills. This is down from the peak in November 2014 of $1.3 Trillion. During this Trump tantrum they have not played along. Though it looks like Trump will be visiting China in the near future. The difference with China is that it is the world’s second largest economy. It does have levers it can pull, unlike other nations. Given that we are adversaries I think it odd that China buys US Treasuries thus funding the US war machine. Though the downward direction I expect to continue. This would mean the United States needs someone else to pick up the tab. China also plays the currency markets. China pegged its currency from 1997 to 2005 to the U.S. dollar but since has managed its currency against a basket of currencies. The effect of the peg and the low currency is that Chinese exports are cheaper and, therefore, more attractive compared to those of other nations. China is investing heavily in tech and competing aggressively with the US. Thinking that China would bend the knee to US pressure was never a wise strategy.

The biggest issue facing the world is US leadership. In three years when there is another election the administration will change. Trump says he will try to change the election system. He wants to run again, however, he will be 82 years old. Thus the world can play the long game and wait until they get a more favorable alternative. The US capitalist system is designed for the short run. The two part election system is designed for the short run. As former House Speaker Tip O’Niel said, all politics is local. Most voters want to know, “What have you done for me lately”? Countries like China are thousands of years old. A decade is but a blip in time. WIll tariffs generate success for the US? I am skeptical as it has created an environment where the US is viewed as not trustworthy. The costs will be passed to US consumers, effectively a tax. Higher costs equals inflation and no Presidential candidate survives inflation. Just ask Joe Biden. In my view when it comes to Tariff’s 101 the current admin has a failing grade. They are treating the public as if they are dumb. We can read and the logic of tariffs is not that difficult. We have come across as a uncivil society. When you are the largest economy on the planet it is hard to argue you are being screwed. Threatening trading partners will have long term consequences. I am not too concerned about the US economy in the next 1-2 years but in the next 4 to 5 years….yes I am.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann

August 6, 2025

The Erosion of Trust in Government

Published on by hansh51Leave a comment

It seems not a day goes by without some cry or anger over fiscal government responsibility. Concerns about government overreach and visions or delusions of a deep state are frequent. People seem to have lost faith in their federal and local governments. It’s interesting in that the US Constitution established our republic. It created the three branches of government. It allowed its citizens to vote for representation in the government. It revolutionized politics on a global scale. For many a decades their was a country enamored with its Constitution. At times it seemed more popular than the Bible. The preamble to the Constitution provided the foundation, “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.” This is arguably one of the most eloquent phrases in political history (though AI seems to think this is a long sentence and needs to be changed). Yet today this very concept of government seems under threat.

When Ronald Reagan was elected President in 1980, it signified a shift in American politics. The conservative movement had found a home. A drumbeat beat of fiscal and social responsibility was heard loud and clear for decades. During the Reagan administration a key piece of legislation was put to rest. The fairness doctrine was allowed to expire in 1987. It was deemed not necessary anymore. The Fairness Doctrine was put in place by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in 1949. It was implemented for holders of broadcast licenses. When they presented controversial issues, it ensured that viewpoints of both sides were presented. Following its demise in 1987 a whole host of shows appeared expressing a singular point of view. Radio was the initial frontier. The early star of this new format was conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh. Rush would spend his entire career playing the oldest trick in the book. Your problems are not your fault they are someone else fault. In Nazi Germany it was the Jews. In modern America it was your government. He would be loud on radio. Then tell of the evils of the democratic party, sewing the seeds of division in America. When a national healthcare program was created by Barack Obama he could not have been angrier. A government program was a corrupt program in his view. He would be nationally syndicated on radio from 1988 until his death in 2021. His influence lives on,

The legacy of Rush, love him or hate him, is still being felt in this country. This has just metastasized in the current political environment. There among many is a loathing and hatred of government. The government wastes our tax dollars. It is inefficient. Federal and State bureaucrats simply punch the clock and collect a paycheck. They are deemed lazy by many in the public. Judgments are made about people that most people do not even know. It has gotten worse of late as we now have fear of a deep state. A government working against its people. In the decades of the internet one thing has become clear. If you can make a compelling conspiracy theory, the world wide web is a phenomenal platform to make your voice heard. These ideas, and some may have a shred of truth, have grown louder. As the old saying goes, “if you say something loud enough and long enough eventually it becomes truth”.

In the end this question of government ineptitude is a question of trust. Can a republic survive in a nation where faith in government institutions has fallen? The recent creation of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) has shown just not the largeness of government. It has shown the challenge of shedding government programs. Should it be done with a chainsaw or a scalpel? During the Clinton Administration the scalpel approach was tried. Then Vice President Al Gore was assigned the task of reducing government spend. The approach was simple. As people retired, a simple question was asked: “Do we need to replace their work? Or should we reassign their work?”. It was the last time the US Government had a surplus. In 2001 it was $128 billion. The scalpel approach was clearly not the sole reason for the surplus, but it helped. Fast forward to DOGE and we did the chainsaw approach. In some areas it is just cruel. Slashing foreign aid to African nations will result in millions of deaths. We have slashed agencies like FEMA with a desire to push recovery down to the states. That is hard to accept. You do not know when a catastrophe will strike. You also do not know how many billions will be needed to recover. Most states lack the girth and financial resources to handle these catastrophes. As we spiral downwards trust is being replaced with confusion which leads to anarchy.

One question we seem not to be able to address is “what do we want our government to be”? We know the four biggest ticket items on our government tab are as follow: 1) Defense Spending 2) Healthcare (Medicaid and Medicare) 3) Social Security 4) Interest on Debt. Government does a lot of other things for its citizens. One of the great achievements of the United States is our globally recognized university system. The federal government provides grants to universities who do research on areas like infectious diseases. This then eventually makes it into the private sector spurring economic growth. The PhD’s who lead this field work in conjunction with the CDC. A lot of knowledge is exchanged and shared. This would appear to be a good thing and it is. In today’s conspiracy world many find it wrong and so they look to defund. In the wake of the massive flooding in Texas we hear discussion around funding for the National Weather Service. In today’s climate fueled world I would argue that their importance is growing not shrinking. The US Government is responsible for the infrastructure in the United States. However we do a infrastructure bill which creates jobs and updates roads, bridges, waterways etc…many call it waste. It is hard to achieve greatness when the countries infrastructure is falling apart. This makes it resemble the third world more than the first world. These are just a few examples but their are dozens more agencies that do critical work on behalf of the American people.

I think in the end we all believe we want a more efficient government. We also believe we do not want our healthcare placed in the hands of the private sector. We want our veterans to be taken care of after having served. We do want retirement benefits. We want a strong defense. When tragedy occurs on a massive scale we want help from our government. We want to be able to have good roads to drive on. Everyone should have access to the internet, no matter where you live. We want research to create a cure for cancer. To help prevent the next COVID outbreak. To make sure everyone has equal access to a good education. We want a strong energy infrastructure so we all have access to basic amenities. To make sure whatever your faith you will not be persecuted. Government is a key partner in all of these areas.

We want our country to be a beacon of hope, a light on a hill. We were a brave new idea when the constitution was completed in 1783. We gave the people at the bottom a say in their government. A vote by a plumber was equal to a vote of the wealthiest American. We dared people to dream big. We dared people to fail. The American dream was built on the idea that one could achieve a better life. One could dream for their children that they would be educated. That each person had the right to pursue their own path to success no matter how they define it. The lights of the future shown brightly. If that light should ever go out, this country will be less, the world will be less.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann July 14, 2025

America’s Emotional Turmoil and Its Consequences

Published on by hansh511 Comment

America is a diseased nation. Seemingly stumbling through a belief in its own greatness, while tearing itself apart with internal strife. We have been on a journey to the least of human emotions, one built on anger, envy and greed, to name but a few. We find comfort in playing the victim, while holding others accountable for our failings. Rather then helping ourselves we find ourselves desiring punishment for those who have failed us, based more by perception than reality. We have turned on ourselves. That is a reason why many say in this day of age that the greatest threat to American democracy does not come from external forces but internal corrosion.

The Cold War was in hindsight a world structured on order. You had two camps, the Soviet camp and the American camp. There is something to be said for order, who are the good guys, who are the bad guys. Identifying with one camp or the other. It provides a sense of belief a sense of purpose. When that order is disrupted a slow painful descent into chaos ensues, and it is not just the loser who spirals downward, the winner also struggles to define a new role, a new world order. Over time that leading position begins to erode and eventually as in all good stories a challenger arises. This sums up the American plight since the end of the Cold War.

Now in seemingly quick fashion things are quickly unraveling. We can point to several news items. We have the congressional hearings on January 6 and then the pardoning of everyone who was convicted of crimes on January 6th. White Nationalism now has a place in our political discourse. The Supreme court has acted out of vengeance. We have Russia and Ukraine at war now for three years. We now have Israel destroying Hamas while killing tens of thousands on Palestinians’ living in Gaza. Now Israel and Iran are at war, though as of this writing we have a “temporary” cease fire. As we watch a middle east that we ae worried is in danger of spiraling out of control. We have global economies that have been crippled as trade wars rage. We have a nations whose most compelling emotion is hatred. Hatred is not sustainable, it eventually has to burn everything in its path.

America was founded on an ideal. The rights of the individual. The right of self determination. We built a republic based on the constitution. We turned our backs on monarchies. We were one of the worlds’ first attempts in a democracy for the people, by the people. Along the way we stumbled. First not addressing one of humanities’ greatest crimes: slavery. Then addressing it in the bloodiest war in US History: The American Civil War. It however did not end there as it was followed by a century of Jim Crow laws, leading to the civil rights movement and the bloody images of Selma, Alabama. We also did tremendous things particularly in private industry creating some of the largest well known brands in the world from Standard Oil, Coca-Cola, Ford Motor Company to today’s Tech Titans like Microsoft, Apple Facebook etc..We launched men to the moon. We provided aid to third world countries combating some of the worlds greatest diseases such as AIDS. As much as Donald Trump detested COVID-19 it was the United States that came up with vaccines to stem the tide

Yet despite the great aspects of the US we have now decided to go down an isolationist path in our foreign policy and seek to solve our perceived problems by looking inward. One thing that seems clear in recent history is we have come to believe we are a burdened nation due to heavy handed tax policies. Even though among developed countries (OECD) we rank 31st out of 38, indicating a lower tax burden. But corporate America loves to cry and to pay lobbyists to get Washington DC to bend to their will. On the flip side the US has amassed a huge deficit (spending versus revenues). In 2024 the US deficit was $1.8 trillion. This is down from 2020 when it was over $3 trillion, but still I think many would say not sustainable. We are in the process of passing a bill that by all accounts will only increase the deficit. A bill designed to appease the very wealthy while conning the lower income and poor households into believing the bill is for their benefit while it strips away their healthcare. Rush Limbaugh must be smiling from hell.

America has dissolved, certainly in my lifetime, to one of outright hostility among its citizens. If you are on the right you are a fascist conjuring up name like Hitler and Mussolini and if you are on the left you are a communist conjuring up names like Stalin and Mao. I would probably say most who throw out these allegations are very poor students of history. At the turn of the century Fascism was coming into view. Beginning in 1922 with the rise of Benito Mussolini and the March on Rome. It would gain significant momentum with the rise of Adolf Hitler in Germany. I think we all know the rest of history. Communism would launch in 1917 in Russia with the Russian Revolution and the first attempt at a communist state in history. There are really two sides to communism. One was the economic policies where the state controlled all aspects of industry and set forth 5 year economic plans. The second was the Party as the one entity that controlled government. The first proved ineffective and was crushed by the free market policies of the west. The second is still practiced in China today and love it or hate the Chinese economy is performing very well. Many citizens have risen out of poverty. This name calling without historical context is rather vile and is in no way helpful to the political dialog in the US, Once you go down that rabbit hole it is hard to come back up. Columnist David Brooks calls this explosive distrust “It’s not that I think your ideas are wrong, I think your ideas are illegitimate”. When you are in this phase there is no conversation or intellectual thought to be had.

At the start of this discussion I mentioned the innate American belief in our greatness. America has always believed in its unique place in history. We have the largest economy in the world with only China being in the ball park in terms of size (US $30.5 Trillion, China $19.2 Trillion Germany $4.7 Trillion). We have the largest and most well funded military in the world. With all this going for us why are we playing the victim? Why do we have a campaign slogan called Make America Great Again? The slogan implies we are not great, so who is better than us? Every year we seem to slide on the happiness scale, the Scandinavian countries seem to be alternating first place every year. Somewhere along the way we seem to have lost confidence, not in the numbers (GDP) or our power (Military). We have lost confidence in our ability to achieve the American dream. Listening to younger generations the idea of owning a home already seems out of reach. The average age of first time home buyers had increased to 38. When I bought a house in 1995 the average age was 29 and at the time I was 29!

What comes next? Where do we go from here? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel or will we prefer to wade more into darkness? I cannot offer hope for a brighter future as I see the noose of technological progress tightening. Despite some rosy employment reports I view that as more a blip. We tend to view success by the performance of the stock market. It is apparent the market is just for the really wealthy who play in it. About 61% of Americans do not have a secondary education and jobs have fled the country and technology is automating manufacturing that it is pointless to try and bring it back. What happens when people get desperate? They become irrational, violent and susceptible to conspiracy theories (and we have some great ones such as QANON, Vaccine denial, etc…). We have heard whispers of civil war, though that still seems far fetched, the mere fact some our thinking along those lines is concerning. Can we ever have a government that acts like it is functioning? In the short term I do not see that happening. But in the long term I see a younger generation with a different set of values. One not so rooted in money and material items. One that believes the earth is suffering and want to help. We can cling our hope to them to restore a dialog and discourse that will be productive rather than vindictive. Lets hope for that

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann July 3, 2025

America’s Deep Division: History and Politics Today

Published on by hansh51Leave a comment

It seems not a day goes by in America where someone does not comment on how divided we have become as a nation. It seemingly grinds us to a halt and causes the worst of human emotions to bubble to the surface. As we raise our voices in opposition to our opponents we lose sight of our own beliefs as we find our emotional center dissolving with each utterance. We are now in the hands of the historians who down the road will write as to how American reached this epicenter of decay. At the end of the day it is the historians who will pass judgment. I can only imagine at the height of their power that Nazi Germany felt in their bones that history would be kind in the retelling of their story. However the historians had a different judgement of their time on earth. We are at that crossroads in the United States. Will our great experiment of democracy end in victory and happiness for its people or will it end in the decay of despair and a totalitarian state, a reminder of histories failures.

To be divided as a nation is not unique to the United States, nor is it new to the United States. Our own civil war makes that abundantly clear. In hindsight the American Civil War was not about states rights (as some have argued, notably Jefferson Davis), it was as Ulysses S Grant said in his memoir “only about the issue of slavery”. The border of the war was easy to define as the Mason-Dixon line divided North and South. Yes there were people on both sides who were either for or against slavery but the confederate states were all in the south and the union states all in the north. The history of the South and the “War of Northern Aggression” has been studied and written in great detail since in ended in 1865 and yet still influences this country to this day. Our black citizens still suffer the consequences of 1619 (when first slave came to America).

The figure of Donald Trump was meant to divide us, any utterance of unity on his part has always been self serving and never for the benefit of the masses. In his world view we can be united if we all simply follow him. He knows the problems and he has the answers. Democracy is about trust, dictatorship is about fear. So much of his campaigning has been based on tapping into that fear. A fear his fanatical base of MAGA supporters is all too happy to embrace. Feeling that they have been betrayed by their government. One could call fear a weak and baseless way to make decisions, but it is an emotion that will lead to irrational and emotional decisions. We watch this playing out day by day with cruel intention.

It is interesting that the worlds largest economy feels like it is being cheated by so many and that somehow we are the victims of a global conspiracy (or at least a Chinese conspiracy). We are the most prosperous nation on the planet, yet we have evolved towards a two class society of have’s and have nots. Killing the middle working class along the way. Gone are the days of the union man working at the automotive factory being able to buy a house and provide for his wife and two kids. It is a legacy of the fifties, that though romantic, was always based on a fantasy. This was post WWII and the world was rebuilding and we had the materials and the labour. It was fun but it could never last. When Milton Friedman uttered the phrase “The only social responsibility a corporation has is to maximize shareholders value”, the good times were gone and let the 1% of America feed there greed. Despite our self professed love of capitalism, it is ultimately a have and have not system. Many who espouse love for the free market are its most significant victims.

Today that former middle white working class lives in despair. Something well documented in Anne Case and Angus Deaton’s book “Deaths of Despair”. The fentanyl crisis has hit this group very hard. In 2013 there were 3105 Fentanyl deaths in the United States, by 2022 the number had jumped to 73,838 deaths. California had the most Fentanyl deaths (6,453) followed by Florida (5,083) and New York (4,950) but as a percentage West Virginia, 60.8 deaths per 100,00 people was a run away winner, sadly. One thing that is consistent when reading and watching shows on fentanyl is it happens in areas where opportunity is scarce and hope is lost. Add to this a highly potent, cheap and addictive drug and death becomes only a matter of time. Not an end of life but a way out of life.

A key for America has always been entrepreneurship. We have made it easy to start and build companies based on our citizens own effort and creativity. From the days of Henry Ford and JP Morgan to todays tech titans of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. It is what has made America unique and envied throughout the world. You can achieve your dreams as the US has provided a framework to allow you to dream big. In the dawn of the Gilded Age as the era of industrialization created new wealth, many were left at to beg for work and be thankful at receiving work. There was no regulation, no eight hour days were mandated. Healthcare? Retirement plans? If you worked for the mega rich, you served their interest. If you tried to unionize you would be struck down, sometimes violently. Adam Hochschild’s “American Midnight” is a great read on what was happening domestically in America during WWI. In many instances the threat of unions was met with violence and in some instances death.

Over time and in particular later during FDR’s administration the workers would receive protections and have the ability to form unions. Social Security was introduced to help people retire with something. This would lead to a post WWII economic boom in the United States. A time when all seemed good in America…if you were white. The auto industry boomed, the steel industry boomed, we even made televisions (remember RCA?)! The classic image was the family with TV Dinners sitting in front of the television. The life style was ideal. Husband works at the auto plant, wife stays home and makes dinner while raising two kids. They live in a nice house with two cars in a simple neighborhood. What could go wrong?

First civil unrest occurred as America had to pay the price of past sins. On trial was Jim Crowe. The legacy and tragedy of the American Civil War had not been laid to rest. Luckily a small Indian (India the country) had laid the foundation. Gandhi. His mantra of non-violent protest would become a symbol of the American Civil RIghts movement. It would inspire leaders like Martin Luther King, John Lewis and Bayard Rustin to name but a few and the images shared globally would paint a dark picture of the American experience. The images of Selma, Alabama are seared into the memory of this nation. A time when violence was used to keep a people down, based simply on the color of their skin. Many in America do not want to discuss this past as it provides a portrait of America that is not so perfect, but it is a part of the American journey and to avoid it is to do so at our own peril.

Going back to our economist friend Milton Friedman his goals of shareholder wealth would shred the middle class. Along with Dr Michael Porter’s “Theory of Competitive Advantage”, the age of outsourcing and offshoring had begun. I think what often gets lost is when you offshore work you are not just offshoring the manufacturing of a product, you are offshoring a supply chain. A basic business premise is “Building a product is easy, building a supply chain is very hard”. The American film classic “Tommy Boy” outlines this very well. Based in Sandusky, Ohio. Tommy works for his fathers company Callahan Auto, where they make break pads for America. This story has a happy ending and Callahan Auto and the Sandusky are saved. Nice Hollywood ending. The reality is most companies opted to outsource or offshore the work. This has led to the death of middle America. Many small towns in America, once thriving communities have been left in ruin. Little pink houses for you and me it is not.

The supply chain issues becomes most evident and painful when you discuss items of strategic importance. None more so than semi-conductors. It was Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments who in 1958 invented and created the first integrated circuit or microchip. This would be the foundational block of the modern technology industry. Companies that would follow, it what would become Silicon Valley, would be Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel to name but a significant few. Today we find transistors, semi-conductors, etc..in nearly everything, not just our basic tech of iPhones and laptops, but in vehicles, appliances. thermostats, etc.. The challenge is now that these tech heartbeats are not manufactured in the United States, most are manufactured offshore, primarily in Taiwan. The Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world leader. Depending on your source between 50-90 percent of semiconductors come from Taiwan, Founded by another Texas Instruments alum Morris Chang. The worry here is given China’s demand of reunification, if they were to invade Taiwan it would disrupt the global supply chain severely. One may think we should just manufacture in the US and I would agree, but the reality is it would take more than a decade to build and master a manufacturing plant and process like TSMC.

Abraham Lincoln said, “A house divided cannot stand”. The Civil War still is the largest catastrophe in US History with an estimated 618,222 deaths, though the numbers is believed to be higher. With where we are today could the US dissolve into another Civil War? It is a fair question to ask. The mere fact that it is mentioned in some circles is pause for concern, If it did would it be like our previous civil war? The simple answer is no. The American Civil War was divided by the Mason-Dixon line, The south had an economy tied to cotton and the labor force needed to pick the cotton was slave labor and had been for over 200 years, The north, on the other hand, was transforming its economy to something far greater as it was at the start of the industrial revolution. In todays America the division is between the major technology hubs and the fly over states, Though on a map it would look like the areas colored red would have a huge advantage they do not as they lack population density. My view is if civil war were to break out it would mirror in many ways the Spanish Civil War.

The Spanish Civil War has a romantic side to it from a US perspective. Many people of a left leaning nature would go join Lincoln’s Brigade to try and save the Spanish Republic against the fascist’s of Franco in the 1930’s. It sounds nice and was even more romanticized in Hemmingway’s ” For Whom the Bell Tolls”. However the Spanish Civil War was anything but romantic. It was estimated that over 500,000 people died. Some on the battle field and many by execution. The Fascists would capture people and if they belonged to a union or were a communist they often would be executed and buried in one of thousands of mass grave in Spain. Following Franco’s death it was decided in Spain not to try the past. Spain has never fully resolved its past with Franco and memories are still there in Spain from a period of atrocities. In many ways Spain is similar to many countries in that despite the years gone by at some point you have to come to terms with past crimes countries like Cambodia, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, South Africa, Guatemala, Indonesia, etc..In the US I could see this type of violence erupting on political, sexuality and racial lines, there would be no borders just communities.

The next ten years could shape the rest of the century, There is much to ponder. Will China succeed the United States as the pre-eminent global power? After the end of the Cold War we lived in a world order dominated by one: The United States of America. Within the last ten years that had changed to a multi-polar world order, that now includes China. Russia wants desperately to be viewed as a leader much as it was when it was the Soviet Union. Given its shrinking population and relatively small economy, not to mention its disastrous military performance in Ukraine I view that as unlikely. India would be a far better candidate. The biggest challenge for the US right now given its disfunction is are we accelerating China’s ascension to the top of the leader board as THE global power? RIght now given our daily change in policy – domestic policies, global tariffs, immigration policies, monetary policies, etc..it is hard to know what the next day will bring and for our adversaries this means there is opportunity. If one thing holds us back it is short term thinking versus the long term plan.

The thing about history is that there are periods where a large percentage of a population can go mad with self doubt and look for a safe place, this place usually resides in the past. The issue with the past is it can be romanticized and made greater than it really was. In the US the post WWII era is often looked at as somewhat ideal. As stated earlier it had the all-american family with a house, two cars, a television, good paying jobs and a clear path to retirement. It had its challenges such as the emerging and increasingly vocal Civil RIghts movement, but overall the American worker was living the life of happiness. Since the mid sixties we have slowly been moving towards a path of anger and violence which has caused us to lose sight of the American dream as it has started to darken into more of a American nightmare. In Neil Howe and William Swanson’s great book “The Fourth Turning” they outline how histories curve goes through repetitive stages over 80-90 years. The first being Hope and Happiness (Think post WWII). the Second being the Awakening (Vietnam thru Reagan) , the Third being the Unraveling (The fall of the Berlin Wall and communism) and the finally the Fourth being Crisis. We are 80 years removed from WWII and given recent domestic and global issues feels like we are at the cusp of a crisis – previous ones being WWII, The American Civil War and The American Revolution. As Mark Twain said “History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes”

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann June 7, 2025