A Decade in the Fog – A Journey with Alzheimer’s

My Mom, Maja Hoffmann, passed away on January 18, 2015 after an over decade decline with Alzheimer’s.  It was a long journey to get to the inevitable end. It seems that Alzheimer’s has been with our conscience for a very long time now, with nary a solution in site.  It has increasingly come to the forefront in the news starting with the diagnosis of former President Ronald Reagan in 1993, that ultimately led to his death many years later in 2004.  It is a slow disease that leaves the victim with a shell of a body and a corrosive mind far less than what it used to be.  It was with this backdrop that my mother was diagnosed, not long after the death of my father nearly ten years ago.  The journey has been one that is often documented, but this will just be my own personal account on the route we took to get to where we are today.  My hope is this can be of use and a guide to those who also have loved ones who have been diagnosed with this horrible condition, perhaps to comfort and certainly to educate for what lies ahead.

It started simply enough.  My mom was becoming forgetful.  A year before my father passed away, he was hospitalized after a fall outside a restaurant in Bellevue.  My aunt and her sister were in town visiting from Denmark when this happened.  It was unfortunate timing, but they would go see my Dad every day at the hospital.  My aunt commented to me one day how forgetful my Mom had become.  Every time she said they went to the hospital the aftermath was they could not find the car as my Mom could not remember where in the parking garage she had parked.  We also stated to notice all the dinner parties and girls luncheons that my Mom loved to host, the meals seemed to be shrinking in size.  It was as if side dishes were disappearing.  There was more empty space on the dining room table. than had ever be seen before.  It got to the point at one luncheon that all the woman ate the plain French bread on the table, they were so hungry.  It was comical at the moment. At the time we were more focused on my fathers declining health, this would come back to haunt us, as we neglected to focus on my mom.

Following my father’s death on January 17th 2005, after a lot of scares leading up to his death, we could now focus on my Mom.  She would stay in her home for a year, but we now started getting her in for evaluations at GroupHealth Medical Center.  We did a series of tests.  Some were just following a set of 25 instructions (touch your toes, with two finger touch them over your head..).  We had a cat scan of her brain. The doctor said, “you can see a thinning of the walls”.  I responded, “That could be the normal state of her brain?”  the doctor said, “yes that could be true”.  My take away?  All human brains look like a walnut.  In the end they determined my Mom had Alzheimer’s.  In the days and weeks that followed it would become pretty self-evident.  I would take her to the doctor, which was a mile from her house.  However I went a different way than she was used to (yes she still had a car at this time).  This created great confusion for her, she was even a bit angry.  Not angry in the traditional scenarios you hear with Alzheimer’s, but just general frustration with me. It was something that would become clear as time went by, the ability to recalculate was disappearing.  Everything that was done was in a pattern, no deviation.

During the fall of 2005 we started looking for a new place to live for my Mom as she could no longer manage her house.  A little education for people here when looking for adult family living, the really nice ones have entrance fees. In 2005 they ranged from $60,000 – $100,000.  As far as I could tell this was your initiation fee that says welcome to our club.  I can only imagine how much they cost today.  I looked at 4-5 places before settling on the newly opened Aegis Living of Shoreline.  It had three advantages.  It was in Shoreline about 3 minutes from my house.  It had no entrance fee, so we saved money!  It was a one bedroom apartment with a bathroom, small kitchen and living room that cost in 2005, $2500 per month.  Finally it also had next door a home for people with late stage Alzheimer’s, so when the time came and my mom could no longer function on her own we had a place to move her.  In 2015 it would cost $5000 per month.  The yearly 10% increase was like clockwork. We moved her in on January 1 2006.  She was 73 yrs old.  For the next 9 yrs myself, my brother Karsten, my wife Jean and our three children Henrik, Finn and Jens Christian would spend a lot of time at Aegis.  For my kids the grandmother they remember will be the one who lived there.

Early on a few things we learned.  My mom really was losing her short-term memory quickly.  Questions were asked by her.  Answered by us.  Then asked by her again within a minute.  Conversations were negligible as she could not seem to remember the topics being discussed.  As part of our duties we bought her some whiskey (a gallon jug of McNaughton’s), as Mom liked her evening cocktail.  But it was quickly apparent she was drinking a little too fast as two days later when we checked her supply it was half empty.  So we bought a bottle of wine and a 6 pack of beer instead, but it was non-alcoholic. Early on she read the labels and was none too happy about this development. Threatening to pack up and leave and move to Denmark.  Within a year this argument disappeared as she seemed to not notice anymore and was happy.  Plus Aegis had happy hour every Friday, so she got the real stuff.  The biggest fear about the alcohol was not that she drank so much but what it did to her balance.  At the beginning she made her own coffee, this stopped quickly as we asked that all kitchen appliances be turned off.  This was because she would make a pot of coffee and then leave it on until all liquid evaporated and we were left with a burnt coffee pot.  It was a safety issue.

Physically, and I think many experience this with Alzheimer’s, she did not deteriorate much the first 4-5 years.  She had a cane but walked to breakfast and dinner.  If she dropped something on the floor she had no problem bending over and picking up the item.  Actually to begin with she gained weight at Aegis.  I would learn this was pretty normal for everyone at Aegis after they moved in,they would gain weight, and then start a slow decline.  They di  not have to cook, they basically went to an in-house restaurant every night and just ordered.  My mom in the first 5-6 years physically was doing just fine, except for bathing, she could not remember to do that.  Turns out in old folks homes it is a common thing as getting in and out of a shower is a scary thing when you are starting to lose your sense of balance.  Old people do not smell good, but then neither do teenagers.

One thing we did very briefly was give our mom Alzheimer’s medication.  The drug of choice in 2006 was aricept.  A couple of things here.  For starter aricept is expensive, about $325 per month.  A second issue is it has numerous potential side effects. Things like blacking out and having seizures, coughing up blood, painful urination etc..My mom did not have any of these side effects but when you read the warning label you are left scratching your head, “why are we doing this?”.  The bottom line however is all these drugs to this date can only slow down the progress of Alzheimer’s.  With where my mom was at we were already so far along I am not sure what we would be slowing down.  After two months we stopped.

Somewhere along the fifth year we needed to look at getting a walker.  Physically the walking stick was getting a bit dicey.  We were worried she would fall and hurt herself.  We bought her walker at Bartell’s Drug Store, a local Seattle-based company  It was like a fish taking to water.  Mom was motoring around in no time.  Her memory was progressively getting worse.  Early on at Aegis she used to call me at work, always requesting I buy her beer, wine and whiskey.  I never did buy the whiskey and she could drink all the non-alcoholic beer and wine she wanted.  At first she battled us on non-alcoholic, but that only lasted several months before she forgot.  But she could function with the basics.  Get out of bed, go eat, some back to apartment, go eat, etc..She did not need any assistance to do these things.  Aegis was also really good about when they had happy hour (with real alcoholic beverages) they would go get my mom and bring her downstairs for happy hour.  And now that she had her walker she had better balance.

During our time at Aegis on a monthly basis the local Danish Community had a lunch every month they called “Onsdags Klubben”, literal translation the Wednesday Club.  We (and by we I mean Jean) would take my Mom to visit old fiends.  Early on she had fun, especially when she got her beer and Danish Akvavit.  She would react to conversation, but rarely if ever instigate he conversation.  It was good to get her out but as time would go on she would often say she did not want to go.  As the years went by she really did not want to eave the confines of Aegis.  Luckily it did not take much prodding to get her to go and despite her weakening condition it was good to at least attempt to get her spirits up.  Even though the moment was just that, a moment.

As time progressed one thing we noticed is that Mom’s memory did not follow the norms of what you hear about Alzheimer’s.  Usually early on people become very angry and obstinate.  Unless I goaded my mom to get angry at me (which I did from time to time, just to get an emotion from her), she was usually happy and in a good mood.  Another thing you hear is people remember the past with clarity, they just cannot remember one minute ago.  My mom seemed to struggle with memories in general.  I tried to think of an analogy for my mom.  The best I could come up with was as follows.  If you fell a tree and then saw through it, you notice all the rings of a tree, each representing a year and thus telling you how old the tree is.  Now replace years with memories and rather than adding start subtracting.  that was what was happening to my mom.  With each year her ring of memories was shrinking. Towards the end she could still remember her immediate family, but the world inside her mind was increasingly being covered in a thick fog.  However she never lost her smile.

Towards the end in dawned on me that one thing Alzheimer’s does to people is their bodies are under no stress.  The things normal people worry about such as jobs and family do not exist for Alzheimer’s victims.  They have no worries, no fears…no stress.  If it were not for the memory loss most people on the planet would find this liberating. For me it did seem to explain why my mom’s body could keep motoring along.  The mental aspects of life takes a toll on us all physically, whether we want to admit it or not.  Not having any stress reduces the physical toll we pay on a daily basis.

In the last year of my mom’s life she physically began to deteriorate.  She was under a hundred pounds.  Her skin would easily crack and she would bleed a lot on her bed sheets.  This is, I should add, is not Alzheimer’s it is one of those things that just happens with age.  However we were starting to see signs that her body was now beginning to fail.  In early January we had to pick up my youngest son at mom’s, not to complicate the story but he needed to be there for 30 minutes.  After we picked him up he said that he watched TV for the 30 minutes, but even he noticed that my mom was just glazed over watching TV.  I took her to the doctor on January 16, 2015.  She weighed 86 lbs. Her back was just a bunch of scabs.  On Saturday we, being Jean, I and the kids visited my father’s grave in the tenth anniversary of his death.

On Sunday morning January 18th my brother called from my moms saying he found my mom on the floor, looking very glazed.  I dressed quickly and jumped into the car and got over to Aegis within 10 minutes of the call.  I got into her room before the ambulance arrived. She was on the floor, her eyes open but unable to track our basic hand movements.  The ER folks showed up and we got her up and into a stretcher.  At the time we could already tell one side of her body was not mobile anymore.  When we got to the Harbor View ER in Seattle it was quickly determined that my mom had suffered a severe stroke that had rendered her right side of the body paralyzed.  We now had to make choices.  In reality it was not hard to make.  Trying to keep her alive with a feeding tube did not seem to make sense.  We decided comfort care was best and we now just had to move her to a room and wait.

We waited throughout Sunday, primarily Jean, Karsten and I.  The three of us went to Vito’s bar and had a few Manhattan’s in honor of Mom (she would have approved of this).  After drinks my brother left and shortly thereafter Jean left to go home and be withe the kids.  I stayed on and at around 8:00 after the Seahawks game my friend Joe stopped by and we chatted until 8:48.  my Mom was struggling but the doctor had said a human body can last up to a week without food, I thought we had a little time and I would come back first thing in the morning.  I got home around 9:15 and took care of a few things around the house.  I looked at my iPhone and saw I had a voice mail left at 9:05, it was now 9:45 (dang phone never seems to ring when I need it to).  The voice mail was simple, my Mom passed away at 9:03.

I drove alone back to the hospital.  Jean had offered to come, but I did not like the idea of leaving the kids home alone especially since they were all asleep.  I could not get in touch with Karsten.  After finding parking and walking to the hospital I found the nurse in the central area of the floor doing paper work.  He took me to the room where my mom came to her final rest.  I shall spare you details.  I went back to the desk where the nurse was.  Filled out some forms and then we discussed where to take the body, I had done this before when my Dad died, so I guess I could say I was experienced.  Then we were done.  I stood there in the hall with nurses up and down the hall going about doing their job.  It seemed busy and yet I was alone.  i realized at that moment it was over, I had no parents.  A new chapter was opening and I walked down the hall of the hospital..alone as I had ever been.

The days that followed were filled with calls and condolences.  I have to be honest I struggled with condolences and my thought is that a lot of people who lose someone to Alzheimer’s do.  My mom’s body had passed on January 18, 2015, but her spirit was long gone.   I had realized this for sometime and by sometime I mean years, maybe a decade.  It is a long journey that is really shared only by a few people, luckily.  It is hard on the caregivers, but in so many ways it just becomes a natural part of your daily life.  The daily visits, the accidents and mishaps that come along the way.  It just blends it self in with the rest of your life.  When the end comes it is more with a sense of relief.

The days that followed were in some ways therapeutic.  For the first time in ten years I actually had a chance to remember my mom and who she was before Alzheimer’s.  I have included the eulogy I gave for my mother so, you the reader, can at least know a little about the person who was before Alzheimer’s, because I do not want you or I to remember the past ten years.  I want you all to know a little about the life that was.

When my mother first passed away I thought I did not want to comment or think about the past ten years.  A time which we literally watched her mentally and physically wither away.  Over the past week I have come to realize it has been about ten years since I thought about who my mom was and what she used to be like.  In a small way it has been rewarding to look back on those years and remember mom.  .

My mother, Maja Hoffmann, born in a small town on the outskirts of Aalborg, but in reality Aalborg is where the story and one of my greatest influences on life, begins.  She was one of 12 siblings.  She lived through the second world war, surviving tuberculosis.  She would tell me how horrible the occupation was.  She could only go to school 3 days a week…I would just look at her as I looked up from my homework, how lucky she was.  But war had it’s costs, one of her sisters did not survive tuberculosis.

When I look back at my youth it seems like  countless hours were spent going to dinner parties or hosting dinner parties.  The litany of people coming to our house or going to theirs is numerous; Hans & Delores, Ruth and Anker, Ruth and Preben, Minna and Otto, Mike and Sonya, Ulla and Sven, Johnny and Henni, Mauri Johnson, Hertha and Charles, Charlie and Sally, Rita and Roy, Ingrid og Trokvy, Greta and Henning,  just to mention a few.  When it was at our house Mom did all the work and dad prepared cocktails. It seemed our house was always people coming and going.  We had a lot of nationalities covered, though the danes outnumbered the other nationalities combined 3-1.  Karsten and I seemed to have permanent reservations at the little kids table

My mom was always interested in Traveling.  She traveled to England as a opar, was a nurse in Paris for 6 months, traveled to Italy and visited Naples, Sorrento and Capri, Saw the World Expo in Belgium, A trip to Mallorca, and the countless vacations we took as kids back to Denmark.  My desire to travel and see the world stems largely from those stories she shared with Karsten and I as kids.    She took Karsten and I to the coast every summer for several years.  We went to Lake Chelan one year.  When I was in college she had already determined my junior year that I should study abroad in Denmark.  In August of 1987 I left for a year in Copenhagen Mom, Dad and Karsten came in December to celebrate their silver anniversary.  I remember coming from school to meet them in Albertslund.  I walked in had two shots of Gammel Dansk and a couple of beers.  Mom was impressed with how Dansh I had become.  Needless to say that year abroad had a huge influence on my life and my desire to travel has stayed with me since that time.

Combing dinner parties and traveling, my Mom was very diligent in saving up her money for some long vacations in Denmark.  We did three major vacations growing up in 1972, 1976 and 1981 – each one six weeks. The first 2 with dad and the last minus dad.  They pretty much all followed a ritualistic routine.  Wake up eat breakfast.  At 10 have coffee and pastries.  At noon get dressed up and go to some huge meal at a relative or old friends house, usually with about 20 other people     or more.  Come back to where ever we were staying, have coffee and pastries at 4:00.  Get dressed up and go to someone else’s house and have huge meal with dessert.  At 9:00 have coffee and pastries.  Go back to where ever we were staying and wake up and do the same thing all over again.  Come home from Denmark and then listen to mom complain how she gained 20 pounds in Denmark for the next 6 months.

My mom also loved to read.  She always had a book around.  She would buy me books for Christmas and my Birthday.  In her youth she would tell me she loved reading about Napoleon.  She liked reading about the different European monarchs, Nicholas and Alexandra was a favorite.  She read classics (Steinbeck, Hemingway etc..) and trash novels.  Even in the latter years when we asked what she had been doing she would say, “reading a book”.  It seemed to comfort her.  She got me interested in Dickens and Victor Hugo.  

Our house always had music playing.  I remember growing up with Johan Strauss, Julie Andrews, Engelbert Humperdinck, Pavarotti, etc..When she could get my dad to go, which was rare, she would go see musicals like “South Pacific” .  She took the family to see Yul Brynner in “The King and I” at the Paramount.  Every Saturday morning she turned on the Scandinavian hour on the Radio.  She made Jon Foro and I sit through this group playing bells at the Harvest Festival.  She attempted to make me musical by signing me up for Accordion lessons.  I will just leave it at that.

If it is not apparent Denmark played an important part of our lives in the Hoffmann household.  My father reveled in the glory participating in the resistance movement..  And it was definitely very cool to have a father that participated in standing up to Nazi Germany.  But make no mistake, Karsten and I are Danish because our mother gave us Denmark.  The traditions, the local Danish community, the trips to Denmark, the sense of pride of being Danish.  I cannot thank her enough for that gift.

But maybe the most important thing I learned from my mom is she just wanted to live.  Most importantly that started with family.  Making sure we experienced life. the trips we did, the parties we hosted, -life rarely stood still at the Hoffmann household. She wanted to experience life with friends.  She did a yearly bike trip in Eastern Washington where her and friends would bike from winery to winery. She joined a hiking club briefly. She boated up with friends and stayed in Stahikan. She was President of Dannevirke, where old Danes helped even older Danes.  My mom got my dad to push wheelchairs of elderly Danes.  He was 80 at the time.   

Yes, my mom has passed.   She has gone to  a better place, where she can cherish all those memories she had from so many years of traveling and life’s adventures.  I have cherished this past week to remember my mom, the mom who bore me, who raised me, who taught me to enjoy life, to experience life. To remember who she was, to remember how influential she has been and continues to be in my life. This is not a time for sadness, but a time to be thankful for all she did.  To my grandparents Kristen and Anna, who I never met, to the city of Aalborg and the country of Denmark whose blood runs through my veins, to my father Johannes Kristian Hoffmann for meeting my mom, thank you for giving us Maja Thomsen, may she rest in peace,….with a bottle of Aalborg Akvavit

Alzheimer’s is cruel.  It is a hard and emotionally taxing journey.  It only takes, it does not give.  It leaves your loved one as a living corpse over the course of time. It can be and is a very frustrating experience.  It has been a long ten years and the end was always foretold.  Now that it is over it will be an experience that remains with me the rest of my life.  There were some good times in the last ten years, but they could never be remembered with my mom or shared as a memory.  The one thing I will do in the days and years to come is to remember my mom before Alzheimer’s.  An energetic and social life.  One that lived versus existed.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann February 11, 2015

 

 

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Wearable Tech Gadgets …waiting for a Hit

It seems a revolution that is pending is wearable technology. There are a lot of devices available today on the market, but though they offer a lot of functionality they just do not seem to have hit the mark. By that I mean, even though many people have gadgets we do not seem to have the “home run” gadget that everyone has to have. Since we have just come through the holidays it seems an appropriate time to review as well as think of what needs to be done to improve. Right now there are a lot of different devices and categories to consider.  From communication type devices, health and fitness, music, etc..Many are good with many features and many are not so good and in many cases they are just plain ugly.

Over ten years ago Microsoft did its initial foray into “wearable” tech, it just was not called that because what they developed was a watch.  Namely the SPOT watch.  When you saw it, you knew what it was because it was B-I-G.  It was interesting in that it used FM frequency to transmit information.  It provided the basics like time and weather. It was not something you wanted to be seen wearing.  In time, and not a very long time, it simply faded away.  That was a big  mistake that Microsoft made with SPOT, by simply giving up.  Microsoft went a decade where it seemed to focus on short-term revenues verses long-term vision.  Now we seem to have a number of watches available or coming available from Samsung and Apple’s much-anticipated iWatch.  Rather than following had Microsoft stuck with the SPOT and tweaked and modified they could have been leading by now.

Google has developed Google Glass which is cool and in some places banned. Seattle’s 5 Point Cafe has a sign that  says Google Glass not allowed within premise.  I recently had an excellent lunch with beer there, great American Bar food (Check out link I provided).  The technology behind Google Glass is cool,  When I am in a new and unfamiliar environment as  I see things I will be able to quickly browse and get information to have readily available.  Without having to touch a screen or log onto a machine.  It is still early and the cost of owning a pair of Google Glasses is cost prohibitive, over $1000,  But as the fundamental economic principle of economies of scale dictates as adoption grows cost begins to decrease.  Long term I can see this concept improving and as cost comes down more people will see the benefits, the one area I am not sure is will the masses adopt this technology?

Health and fitness has been a great place for wearable technology.  Tracking our steps and monitoring are heart rate. This is an area where we could receive huge positive social impact.  We can monitor how active we are, are heart rates, what we eat etc…this will be invaluable info to the individual and the insurance companies who charge us.  It could also help contribute to lower health care costs.  I supported President Obama’s Affordable Health Care act, but have always maintained this is a necessary  interim step until technology will take us to a place where we all will have truly affordable health care.  Where we manage our own health care, without having to be mired in reading and filling out lengthy insurance forms and having to file claims.

One thing that can get lost in all this geekdom is too often gadgets try to do too much.  It was like this before the iPhone.  The ideas and markets the iPhone created were not new, they were accessible. Developers had a single platform to write to.  To get applications and low or no cost was a simple click of the button.  With some of the gadgets today be it fitbit or the new Microsoft band they suffer from trying to do things across multiple devices or simply trying to provide too much information.  In the end they don’t do any of it that well.

A second thing that gets lost is, and in particular I will pick on the latest watch trend.  They need to look sleek and elegant.  The Rolex watch will not go away.  Through its history it has attained status.  Do the watches need to be this grand?  No but there is an element of design that needs to take place.  This is an area that Apple has done really well, just read up on Apple legend Jony Ives.  It is not enough to have great functionality, there needs to be an emotional aspect to what you wear.  A feeling of self-worth, self-confidence.  For the past ten years we have seen technology evolve rapidly beyond the world of geeks as a younger generation has grown up with technology and has increasingly higher demands of what technology can and should provide.

Right now in wearable we are still in an area of vision before reality.  In a lot of ways we are where the dotcom era was at the turn of the century.  The ideas and concepts were available but as an industry we did not have the infrastructure yet necessary to support where we wanted to go.  Wearable’s are somewhat in the same place and still have a few drawbacks.    They still tend to try to do too much and are bulky and awkward in appearance.  Not yet having a strong “eye” appeal.  When I read about some devices I am still taken a bit back by battery life where a watch can only last 24 or 48 hours before you need to charge it.  My old watches lasted a year. However the battery problem is one that has plagued us for years, so this is just a piece in a much larger problem.  If we solve power in the coming years it will not only revolutionize wearable technologies but will revolutionize mankind.

 

Good Night And Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann January 6, 2015

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A.I. a threat to humanity?

Stephen Hawking recently was commenting on the subject of artificial intelligence and made a startling statement  “it could be the greatest thing ever in humanity, but also the last”. Considering that Stephen Hawking is considered by many to be the smartest person on the planet, not to mention he resided in the same chair at Cambridge University that Sir Isaac Newton once sat, we probably should at least pay him the courtesy of listening and discussing what he has to say on the subject.  We are entering a period where the concept of A.I. is not far out fantasy , no longer the realm of film and fiction.  Breakthroughs are being made at breath-taking speeds.  I would not suggest it will be a reality in the next 5 years,  though we are seeing technology accelerate with faster and more often.  Technology  breakthroughs are occurring that are changing how we work and play.  We are already seeing the concept of robotics entering the workforce. The robots today are still very process oriented, but we are seeing robots that can gather information and make decisions based on that information. A case in point would be the Rumba robotic vacuum cleaner by iRobot. Every house is different in its layout, yet eth Rumba adjuts to those differences.  As things move forward frightening prognosis begin to surface about humanities future.  Evan Tesla Motor’s billionaire founder Elon Musk has chimed in on the subject stating it could be a potential threat to humanity.  Going so far as to say,”We are summoning the Demon”. It is worth discussing, in fact it would be dangerous not to. As Dante said, “The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who did nothing during a time of moral crisis”.  To be silent on AI would be to reserve one’s place with Lucifer.

There are mainstream companies like Google, Twitter, Amazon and Facebook who are leading the way in this category, perhaps not directly but indirectly.   If you look at basic search, so much of what you are searching is made available before you have even finished typing what your search request is going to be.  They are harnessing the data that we provide and creating complex algorithms to help meet our immediate needs and maximize our time while maybe shoving us a little in the direction marketers would like us to go.  Another company is Amazon as it looks to what today is simple robotics technology to automate the warehouse.  But they are thinking much broader.  They want search to be optimized for the individual so that it can help decide for you.  These examples to some may not seem relevant, but what is happening in the internet is a baby step towards the grand design if A.I..  Fundamentally as AI develops a large part will be about taking large sets of data, analyzing and coming to some form of judgement.  Today that data is being driven by the internet and the aforementioned companies are leading the way in collecting that data. Tomorrow that data gathered will create actionable outcomes that will be carried out by intelligent machines, not humans.

John Maynard Keynes, the great economist, coined the phrase, “Technological Unemployment” back in the thirties.  Realizing even then as we get more efficient in manufacturing with automation we are taking away jobs.  Today we are entering a new realm of “technological unemployment”.  With A.I. we can envision certain industries being reduced.  One article even noted, we may not need lawyers.  How can that be anything but good?  But to date the role of robotics and perceived A.I. has been reserved for low skill labor, many jobs in manufacturing.  The blue-collar world.  What we can see moving forward is a world where the creation of these new intelligent devices will start replacing jobs in the white-collar world.  Keep in mind all that information made available online will be available to these new breed of machines as they will all be connected devices, connected to the internet, to the cloud. This will be a completely new phenom, one that has not been widely discussed, let alone prepared for.

One of the key points Mr Hawking’s makes is about control.  It can be nice in a world where someone or some group can play god with robotic gadgets.  Make them kind, make them useful.  However it is a difficult task if not impossible to put limits on technological advancement.  We want to push forward as fast as we can making major breakthroughs, but as is often the case we make these breakthroughs without understanding the consequences.  Ultimately when you are talking about artificial intelligence you are discussing the possibility of creating something that is capable of reason.  That can act on its own.  And probably most importantly can make its own decisions.  That ability to look at some situation or some one and based on the information it possesses decide its fate.  It would go beyond hand to robotic hand combat, but in usual Hawking’s fashion he has a sense of humor about that scenario as well.  Recently he was on John Oliver’s show, Oliver asked, “Why would I not want to fight a robot” and in Hawking’s deadpan fashion, “you would lose”.  But that is simply the physical aspect of a robot.  What will the reasoning component of the robot decide?

A part of A.I. is creating intelligence and eventually perfecting the human mind.  I am not sure the consequences of that is fully understand, if it were to be perfected what we would really be giving these synthetic humans would be the right of self-determination. The very right to judge. Time and time again in film we see the scenario of judgement placed on mankind.  Actually it is usually a James Cameron film.  It seems that in the end  it never rules in the human race’s favor.  I would like to believe we are better than that.  However given what we are given in our media, we seem hell-bent of a diet of crime, violence, death and destruction.  Elon Musk in a recent quote spoke of how A.I. if used to get rid of Spam, may decide the easiest path is to ge rid of those who create it, humans.  You can see the danger here could be a simple mistake in a line of code or as we may refer to it, “a bug”.

For those who saw the Spielberg movie “A.I.” a central theme was what if you create something and give it the ability to learn and feel.  To care. Can we envision a robot with a soul?  That is something rarely discussed.  It would be a handy feature to have.  If a robot with AI had to make a decision on the human race based on the facts alone, it may make a very quick decision.  However if it was capable of emotions it may have sympathy.  It may even rationalize that most humans are actually kind and caring.  A much nobler achievement.  That is the beauty of science and technology, we are challenged to push boundaries to push limits.  But in trying to recreate humans are we replacing humans?  Our souls, our spirituality are what make us human, it is what makes us unique.

Finally there is the morality question.  To create and determine life. Do we have the right?  Will what we create have the right?  What will AI decide?  It begins to sound like James Cameron’s “Terminator”.  However in our lust for competitive advantage, increased revenues and profits, an opportunity to dominate an industry, the questions of morality of the human cost may never be asked.  It is within that discussion that we can see a way forward.  I  believe science hates the discussion as morality seems to be more of a spiritual discussion, but ultimately it is the vast plain where the two must meet to determine their ultimate fate.  That is what separates us, the eternal conflict of our existence, humanity.

The famed computer scientist, John McCarthy, who coined the term Artificial Intelligence defines it as, “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines”.  All the focus is on the word intelligent, the other words are disciplines but intelligence is a very human word.  The latter part, “machines” is very cold and uninspiring.  Machines are thought to be without feeling, without emotion. They are exact, and when working properly, never-failing.  They are everything we are not.  Elon Musk also pointed out recently that things are advancing far quicker than most people realize.  I will add that Newt Gingrich (yes that one) said once, “In the first 25 yrs of the 21st Century we will pass everything done in the 20th Century “.  As we watch we can see that is all but too prophetic. I will add the next ten years following the first 25, will technological advancement will crush everything done in the first 25. Beyond that?  No need to worry, we will not be around to witness it.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann November 3, 2014

 

Google’s Amazon Threat

It was with great interest I read a speech given by  Google’s Eric Schmidt in Berlin at the headquarters of Native Instruments.  The subject was really about innovation and the disruption it has caused and continues to cause.  A large part of the text was simply a history of Google and how it has improved search along the way and how search has led Google into new markets.  But what I found most interesting and what caught my attention is when it came to the subject  of competition.  Towards the end of his speech, Eric said the biggest threat to Google was not Yahoo or Microsoft Bing but Amazon. At its core, though mostly focused on commerce, Amazon was answering questions based on end users search criteria.  Collecting people s likes and dislikes.  What their interests are.  Literally customizing search to meet their customers needs.  This is the essence of what Google does.  Amazon like many of the upstarts in the industry is not afraid to dare into new territories dominated by others.  It says a lot about the industry and the nature on the internet as a disruptive force in industry and society.   But it is always interesting and newsworthy when two industrys giants begin to collide.  It is worth discussing ad trying to foresee how this will play out in the industry.

Living in Seattle it is easy to see the impact that Amazon is having in the local northwest economy.  Driving south on Interstate 5 you can see the multitude of cranes rising up  to the greying clouds that cover the Seattle sky.   The construction business in Seattle is building new structures for Amazon and anyone wanting to live downtown, primarily Amazon employees. Amazon has had the biggest impact of any company in the city since the nineties and the rise of the Microsoft empire.  What is a little different is Microsoft’s empire rose to the east of Seattle in Redmond, where Amazon has grown within the city limits of Seattle.  What has been impressive about Amazon’s rise and what I admire about Amazon  is their indifference to the establishment, primarily Wall St.  They invest whenever and wherever they can. At the top Jeff Bezos has understood very well that in the technology sector you are just one missed investment away from being irrelevant.  To be afraid is to die.  They have also brought a renewed interest in the venture capital community in the northwest.

In technology to succeed you often have to change the battle field, in an Art of War manoeuver.  Google did this to Microsoft when it used search to indirectly fund projects like Google Docs to compete with Microsoft.  Amazon is doing two things: One, it does not care about profits it reinvests any and all money it can.  It understands the nature of technology sets the rules, not Wall Street.  Hoarding cash like Microsoft, Apple and Google do may get the finance guys excited, but at some point you need to place big bets to secure future success in new fields. The Second is using the retail channel to create the Amazon channel.  Amazon has done a phenomenal job of making channel partners, like bookstores become AWS customers.  Not to mention these are companies actively using those cloud services, not just signing up. Amazon also did a great job of turning all those book publishers into suppliers of digital content for the Kindle Device. Amazon not only built a channel when they started to ship books they have helped guide these partners into the future while helping them and Amazon make more money.

There are others that are a threat to Google, I often think of Twitter and Facebook.  To the latter I remember a few years ago that Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg saying during an interview that Facebook was able to generate over $1 billion in search revenues and that they were not really trying.  Wouldn’t we all like to generate a billion dollars without really trying.  Twitter so far is not really about being a search engine, but they are the pulse of the internet.  If you want to know what is happening on the  internet you can just go to your Twitter account and discover what is going on based on your preferences.  Both these companies will be competition to Google, but in the near term the biggest battle for Google will be Amazon.

Eric Schmidt is smart (Bill Gates even said that at a meeting I was in attendance), he probably deserves more notice than he has received.  I think he is in the same class as Jobs and Gates.  Maybe because in between SUN Microsystems and Google he had the ill-fated stop over at Novell.  With Jobs deceased and Bill only involved on the perimeter of the industry Eric may be at the forefront of the industry but he just does not seem to get the same rock star treatment that Jobs and Gates received.  At times it seemed the media waited on every word that the two former said.  Now Eric is unfortunately relegated to that of relic of a by gone era, leaving the young guns like Brin, Paige, and Zuckerberg to speak for the industry.  Or is he?  He still garners a lot of attention when he talks and he continues to push the future with initiative such as Googles robotic vehicle technology.  If he were a general he would have 4 stars and a lot of bars.

Then there is Bezos.  When Amazon first started he did not seem to be such a visionary.  They were the book guys.  What is so exciting about selling books over the internet?  But like many, myself included, we all underestimated him.  When he said that Amazon had so much excess computing capacity that Amazon needed to harness that power and deliver new cloud services, it seemed like he was encroaching on the domain of the more established players like Microsoft, Oracle, SAP etc.. except none of the aforementioned was doing anything like the cloud.  Next thing that you knew was Amazon Web Services was a billion dollar business and everyone was chasing Amazon into the cloud.  Along the way Kindle was launched.  They are getting into the tablet business and smartphones.  Bezos has become somewhat  of a visionary in the industry, though his misses (phone & tablet) sometimes cloud his successes (Kindle and Cloud)..

As Amazon encroaches on Google’s business, they are right to be concerned in Silicon Valley.  Just like Google used what was initially search to stretch into mapping, mobile and vertical business, one can see Amazon doing much the same.  If you follow the flow of Eric Schmidt’s talk in Berlin, start replacing all you learn about Google and see if you could start replacing the word Google with Amazon.  It turns out not to be that difficult.  Go a step further and look at big bets both companies are making and you start to see overlaps in areas like drone technology.  In the end it is inevitable as both are trying to be the launch destination for people getting onto the internet, similar to how Windows was the launch site for people using a PC.  It will be a typical ferocious battle in the technology industry.  Some areas we are still very early on in the industry, robotics coming to mind, and upstarts will challenge the industry giants, they always do.  As of today the battle of titans is between Amazon and Google, but then, in technology, there is always someone lurking around the corner

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann October 24, 2014

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Steve Ballmer: The Final Review

I guess with all the reviews I went through at Microsoft, it is time to give Steve Ballmer his final review.  He was with the company for nearly 34 years and a part of its foundation.  He was a primary reason the company rose to great wealth and fame.  He was a cornerstone of the company’s growth, but as in all things in life, things come to an end.  In Steve’s case he probably did not go out as he would have wished.  To be frank it was rather quiet, which is odd coming from a man who is anything but quiet.  When Steve was in a room everyone knew.  In order to do a proper review we will have to have a system in place.  I shall borrow one from the various Microsoft review systems I was a part of during my 18 years at Microsoft. Now we had the old system of five being the best and one being the worst.  Then we had the last system that inverted the old system. Never quite followed why HR wanted to do this.  In any case I think I am going with the middle systems that was between the 1 to 5 or 5 to 1 system.  This consisted of the following: did not meet expectations, met expectations and exceeded expectations.  We shall also break this out by category.  I have laid out the following categories: 1) Financial Results 2) Vision 3) Talent Acquisition and Loss 4) Company Enthusiasm  5) Leadership.

One thing we have to give Steve credit for is he saw a company that was growing in terms of its financial results and number of employees.  Very early in his tenure he bought into the business models created by than business guru and GE CEO, Jack Welch.  Though I cannot agree to a lot of what Jack was a proponent of, it did enable Steve to create a business machine.  It created structure where there was little.  He took Microsoft’s software licensing machine to new heights. Over the course of his tenure the numbers were always on Steve’s side.  As he looked to make a more efficient company.  During Steve’s tenure revenues increased from $20 billion to over  $70 billion. I once had a sales manager tell me that in sales it is quite simple and brutal, “you are what your numbers say you are”.  For Steve one can only say he was brilliant in this regard.  Review Score: Exceeded Expectations

A key component of any companies survival is vision.  A company must envision where it will be in ten yours and how it will get there.  In technology this is even more important as companies must continually innovate to stay alive.  One minute you’re in, the next your out (kudos to Heidi Klum for this quote) Steve had a vision of where the company would be and how it would get there.  The problem was it was generally the wrong vision.  His vision usually started with and ended with Windows and Office.  Even a month before he stepped down he was saying to Microsoft employees, “this is a Windows company”.  The problem was he was not seeing that it was rapidly becoming a non-Windows world.  He failed to see and understand the consumerization of technology.  When the iPhone launched he did not recognize what had happened.  How the industry floor had shifted from under him,   Steve often said he loved Microsoft.  He bled Microsoft.  He had been with the company for over 33 years.  The problem was that products that created Microsoft’s success, were products he could not see beyond.  The numbers backup up the decision, but at the cost of the future for the present.  Review Score: Did not meet Expectations

In the technology industry your technology giants usually have a lot of rock star talent behind their CEO.  This was certainly true of Microsoft during the Bill Gates era.  There were some great developers and visionaries in the ranks.  At Microsoft you had people like Nathan Myrvold, Ray Ozzie, Paul Maritz, Bob Muglia, Charles Simonyi, J Allard, Brad Silverberg, etc..all the aforementioned are gone.  There have been few if any replacements.  The big reason is Steve wanted immediate action and valued business leaders more than technology leaders.  There was really only one visionary that Steve trusted and tha was Bill Gates.  When Bill left he left a large void that was never filled.  It largely, I believe, came down to an issue of trust.  Even when Bill left, putting Ray Ozzie in charge of driving the technology vision, Steve did not seem to want to listen.  In the end all the talent at the top had pretty much all left, leaving it all to Steve.  In order to steer a ship you need to know where you are going, this was never quite clear with Steve at the helm  Review Score: Did not meet Expectations

There was Steve’s enthusiasm for the company and then the employees enthusiasm for the company.  If it were Steve’s enthusiasm alone that was being reviewed the rating would be off the charts.  When Steve said, “I love this company”, it was with unbridled passion.  He really cared. One of the negative things that happened during hos tenure was the creation of a review system based on the Jack Welch model implemented at GE.  It was designed to foster competition in the employee ranks, but it did so at the cost of innovation.  Without going into details it fostered a system if trying to gain political advantage and in the end soured many employees on the company, which was disheartening.  Steve tried mightily to keep employees in his world of “Microsoft love”, but in the end a key part of the Microsoft culture was lost.  Like on Capitol Hill politics breeds its own kind of poison,  In my first 12 years at Microsoft, everyone loved the company.  As the years moved on and exciting technologies came from outside the company the love of Microsoft seemed to float out with it. Review Score: Did not meet Expectations

Leadership as is often said is not something you  are born into, but the events that surround you create the leader.  When Steve was appointed CEO by Bill it seemed the natural course.  He had been Bill’s number two for a long time.  The fact that he was named CEO to replace Bill was not a big surprise (Bill stepping down, however, was a big surprise).  Early on Steve did some important things.  The DOJ trial was behind Microsoft, but there was housekeeping that needed to be done.  He settled with Sun Microsystems.  He realized the company had grown and was no longer a startup anymore.  It needed to put in place policies and systems befitting a Fortune 500 company.  Where Steve veered and went wrong was forgetting what had made the company great and staying on too long as CEO.  If he had stepped down in 2010 I think he could have had a positive legacy.  Perhaps it was the fact that the country was still recovering from the worst economic crisis on history.  But more likely it was the fact that Steve could not see anyone but him running the company.  Finally the fanatical passion of Microsoft employees seemed to weaken a great deal.  Partly it was just an aging work force, partly because the technical visionaries were gone.Primarily the Microsoft culture had changed.  In the end I thought Steve’s leadership was either half empty or half full, depending on how you look at it.  In my mind it puts him in the middle.  Review: Met Expectations

Microsoft is now forging ahead under the guidance of Satya Nadella and it is still early going.  In truth a large legacy has been left behind and it will take time to sort out what will be kept and what will not.  We have years (I hope) before I write about the legacy of Satya Nadella.  For Steve’s sake I hope that is ten years from now otherwise if Satya were to set with the sun much earlier the blame will likely go to what he inherited not what he created.  For Steve post Microsoft he is already doing some exciting things.  I was happy he resigned from the Microsoft Board of Directors.  I never felt it wise to have your former boss on the Board especially of he started scrutinizing decisions Satya was making. This will give Satya more freedom at a time when he desperately needs that freedom. Finally Steve has thrown himself into professional sports as he went out and paid too much for the LA Clippers.  However in getting rid of Donald Sterling I think we can all agree it was money well spent. Steve was always driven by passion, he is an emotional leader.  I think he will succeed, but as for Microsoft that time has passed for Steve and he left with a lot of battle scars.  I am afraid history will not be kind.  Just like when I started at Microsoft and business schools joked about how IBM did not see the industry direction, time has passed and now Microsoft will be similarly remembered as having its IBM moment, all under Steve’s leadership.

Good Night and Good Luck,

Hans Henrik Hoffmann October 3, 2014

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