Greenland has always been a land that when you see it on a map looks very large and very cold. Frankly for many centuries most people did not pay attention to it. Then the impact of climate change started to be felt. With disappearing glaciers the surface beneath began to be revealed and the minerals underneath the earth began to be coveted. In an era where the sins of the colonial past resurface daily, Greenland has transformed from nomad lands. It is now strategically important. In this scenario, the world’s great self promoter President Donald Trump, has said he will either buy Greenland or if necessary take by force. Not a very diplomatic move. The reasons for are strategic. They are also fueled by greed, America’s Achilles heel. The consequences will be great and many.
If you look at a brief history of the Greenland it follow a traditional projectory. As the European powers looked to expand and colonize new lands they sailed west. Greenland was colonized as far back as the 9th Century. It was Erik the Red who set forth from Iceland in 980 and landed in southeast Greenland. Norway and Denmark established a presence in Greenland in the 1700’s. Like many nations of the era they were trying to become colonial powers. Though Greenland is part of the Danish realm this was only formally established in 1953, following WWII. Since 1979 Greenland has enjoyed home rule. In 1985, it opted out of the European Economic Community. Greenland had become a part of the EEC when Denmark joined in 1973. Since that time debates have been had held on establishing Greenland’s independence. The challenge for Greenland in this scenario would be it would be a large land with small population. The current population of Greenland is a little over 56,000. This is just a small city in America.
Minerals are important to the global economy. Nearly everything we use as consumers has some type of mineral. A lithium-ion battery needs cobalt. Copper is used in construction, electrical products etc..Barite is used as a weighting agent in fluids used in the drilling of oil and natural gas wells. There are 84 strategic minerals that are tracked by the US Geological Survey. They can be found here. Some we have abundant in the US and others we do not. Cobalt comes primarily from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC accounts for 74% of world cobalt. Most of this is exported to China. If you own a smartphone cobalt is a very important mineral in your life. If you look through the geological data China leads in a number of areas. The US has understood this and is trying to strong arm deals like the one recently done with Ukraine. Canada and Greenland are being threatened. They are key areas for providing the US with help in mining for critical minerals. Rather than do a trade deal why not just take them over? This seems to be the Trump logic.
Coming back to Greenland what would we mine for? The New York Times reported in March 2025 that, despite dozens of exploratory projects, there are only two active mines in Greenland. The European Commission did a survey of Greenland and that 25 of 34 minerals deemed “critical raw materials” were found in Greenland. Some of the minerals included are copper, cobalt, lithium, titanium etc.. There are already many large companies lining up for these rights. A big problem is the necessary infrastructure to support mining operations. Roads? Rail LInes? Ports? WIth such a small population, which equals a small work force, it is not surprising. To mine Greenland would require a significant capital investment in infrastructure. There are big companies lining up either investing or ready to invest in Greenland.
The race for precious mineral sis nothing new. In the Belgium Congo they went mad for rubber. As outlined in Adam Hochschild’s excellent book “King Leopold’s Ghost” the small country of Belgium went mad with greed. The winners were the Belgium’s and the losers were the natives of the Belgian Congo. As the 20th Century became about oil, the colonial powers raced across the planet. They looked to secure oil for their rapidly growing economies. The winners were the western powers and the oil monarchs who would make alliances. The losers were the citizens of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc…to name but a few. Daniel Yergin’s book “The Prize” covers the history of oil in great detail. There are countless other examples like the California Gold Rush, Cobalt in the DRC. etc..In the end they have one thing in common the race to make a fortune. The race for minerals has also taken on a strategic function with the race to be the dominant AI superpower. If and when a significant deposit of strategic minerals is discovered in Greenland it will be hard for super powers to resists. Whether they choose a diplomatic route or military route will be the question to watch.
Greenland is in a tough situation. There is a desire for some people in Greenland for independence from Denmark. They enjoy many of the benefits of Danish society, such as Health Care. However, the desire for self-determination is strong. In today’s world, democracy is increasingly under threat. The challenge of being an independent nation could not be more daunting. As stated with only a little over 56,000 people it would have next to nothing in self defense. Greenland would be entirely dependent on alliances. The current US administration would provide the worlds greatest defense, it just would not be an alliance. It would be a conquest. President Trump even sent a letter saying the US would treat native Greenlanders very well. Asking any Native American if they trust the US government to take care of them would provoke deafening eye rolls. According to the National Equity Atlas Native Americans have the highest poverty rate in US at 22%. The US social programs are many but calling them an overwhelming success would be a stretch.
Donald Trump announced he was going to buy Greenland from Denmark in his first term. This announcement came out of nowhere. It was prior to a planned state visit to Denmark. Danish Prime MInister Mette Fredricksen’s response was swift, “Greenland is not for sale”. This prompted a typical Trump response now fondly known as a “Trumpertantrum”. State visit canceled and some name calling directed at the Danish Prime Minister. Maturity seems to have become a word lost to the english language. Well at least in America. However, as fate would have it, the issue would not go away and we elected Trump again and now suffer the consequences. Trump has renewed the discussion. Sending his second in command to Greenland to deliver a letter from the President, A letter veiled in lies. Saying how good we would treat the native population, but offer no details. That is because there are none.
The flip side is to stay the course with Denmark, A nation of 5.5 million people, but also part of NATO alliance, This creates confusion as the US is part of NATO. If the US invaded Greenland what would happen to NATO? Would America just being flexing its muscles and say we will be making the rules? We fund most of NATO. Would this just mark the beginning of the end for NATO? What would happen to US alliances? Who would be our allies if we gave up our NATO alliances? It always seems with this administration they are forever playing the victim. NATO has screwed us. I will give this admin credit. They have forced NATO allies to live up to their commitment and increase their commitment in finding NATO. Throw in tariffs and instead of helping, you are now hurting relationships.
Owning Greenland is the dream of a few. There is cause for concern as minerals are becoming more of a strategic asset and China is leading the way. There is ample opportunity in Greenland and also the question of what we don’t know. Denmark is a small land and could not possibly defend Greenland if invaded. They are also one of America’s allies. Like many things in the Trump world that does not seem to matter. Other countries covet Greenland as well such as Russia and China. Could the European Union invest in Greenland? They would have to balance the discussion with their climate change initiatives. Mining is destructive process. My one viewpoint on this is that Greenland can not go on its own. It will need to determine who it trusts and where it is best served. Of course if conquered none of that will matter.
Good Night and Good Luck
Hans Henrik Hoffmann Sept 8, 2025
Hans Hoffmann's Blog 