Year: 2012

Well they are finally rolling out the Nokia Lumina 900 series running the Windows Phone OS. They are doing this with AT&T and offering cut-rate prices.  You will be able to pick these phones up for $100.  I think the price point reflects that fact that Nokia is desperate in the US market and Microsoft is desperate to catch up with Apple and Google. I It was Google VP (and former Microsoft GM) Vic Gudotra who tweeted when this unlikely partnership was announced, “Two turkey’s do not make an eagle”. For the record I support t turkeys, if you have seen them in the wild they are a damn cool bird.  But the quote did summarize the state of Nokia and Microsoft in the mobile space at the current time

I was actually meeting with an old co-worker at AT&T who let me handle the Windows Phone. It was the HTC Titan.  The screen was bigger than my iPhone3 (I am always running behind the latest and greatest). When the iPhone5 comes out I may upgrade.  In any case back to the HTC Titan.  The much discussed Metro interface was nice, is it a game changer? No, but nice and I guess it comes down to personal preference.  Some will like the iPhones, others Android and yet others will like the Metro interface.  There does seem to be high hopes around Windows 8.  I remain skeptical, but Microsoft has the clout to make the new operating system a success.  Not just on the desktop but the smart phone and the tablet.  Back to my friend, he let me hold the device. Which was the first time some one had let me do that.   Note to Microsoft phone people stop withe the demo’s and geeky talk, let people experience the phone.

Can either of these two companies create an Apple size comeback?  Nokia is more Apple like in that it is spiraling towards rock bottom.  Microsoft still has Windows and Office generating over $20 billion so though not a company with a lot of “panache”, they are not dying yet.  My fear for Nokia has always been the move away from software and going head to head with Samsung, LG, HTC and the Chinese handset manufacturers.  It will be hard to distinguish themselves as different from the others.  Of course they did do just that when they selected Microsoft as their phone OS vendor.  Nokia had also blown the US market years ago when they refused to make a flip phone.  For a decade Nokia was a much bigger provider outside the US than inside.  For a time it seemed to be ok, “hey we don’t need the US market”.  Odd, but it is what they did.  Then like so many things in mobility, the iPhone hit and changed the landscape.

Moving forward it is apparent that Nokia will need a tablet play as the idea of just providing smart phones is simply not enough.  Due to their relationship with Microsoft, Nokia is in a holding pattern until Windows 8 arrives in the fall.  If I have a concern here for Nokia/Microsoft it is that no one is holding off on their purchase of the new iPad 3 in hopes of a better Windows 8 tablet.  The iPad has garnered so much mind share that I think many people do not realize Microsoft and its OEM partners are coming out with a tablet.  It does not hurt that Apple stock is now trading over $600 a share and they just announced a quarterly dividend of $2.64 a share.

What about Microsoft in this space?  Well as discussed they will not go broke anytime soon, but this is a last stand in the phone space.  Never has Microsoft attached its sails to one strategic partner like it has with Nokia.  For Microsoft it is important that Nokia maintain and start to regrow its international footprint.  An area where Windows Phone has traditionally been weak.  It i also a major reason for partnering with Nokia.  Nokia invested early and heavily in India and China so it makes sense, this unique partnership. It also needs success in the US market, it only to offset the market presence of both Apple and Google.  Apple really rocked the industry with the iPhone, but no company was caught as off guard as Microsoft.  I was there at the time and there was a flippant view towards Apple in this space, thinking they were naive and would fail.  Revolutions happen and if you don’t anticipate them you will be over thrown.

In conclusion, the next 12-18 months will determine if this partnership will succeed or fail.  There will be challenges.  Microsoft has other mobile handset partners.  What if one of them makes the ultimate Windows Phone experience?  How quickly would Microsoft dump Nokia and how quickly would Nokia run to Google’s arms?  If share doe snot grow but remains stagnant when does one throw in the towel?  AT&T is the largest carrier and promoter of Windows Phone in the US, but how long will their commitment be if the Windows phone continues to falter?  Will Nokia and Microsoft be able to build up a strong developer community to build applications?  There are a lot of unanswered questions and only time will tell.  Some say this partnership needs to succeed, to create an alternative eco system to what Google and Apple provide.  I have always found this a perplexing and humorous notion.  Why do we need a third system?  That is something only the technical people say.  The “people” I cannot see really care one way or the other.  If they did care the Microsoft Zune would still be around.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann March 27, 2012

In his Mobile World Congress keynote in Barcelona, Ford Motor Company Chairman Bill Ford rolled some eyes with his thoughts on technology and the future of the automotive industry.  The move to driver-less vehicles, envisioning a future still in development but very much on the horizon.  To many this may seem far-fetched, a future beyond our years.  However Mr. Ford’s comments were  based on some sound statistical metrics.  With the world population set to grow from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050 and  automobiles set to grow from 1 billion on the road today to 4 billion by 2050.  In conjunction with these numbers it is expected people will continue to migrate to large metropolitan areas.  We are entering an era where we are going to be creating some major environmental issues and huge traffic congestion issues.  Is what Mr Ford touting revolutionary?

Well on the surface yes and I would argue and agree with Mr Ford that in time, we will enter a future where we are not as responsible for our driving as some would like to be.  Many cars today already come with a GPS system, many have satellite radio, have a connection for our iPhone so we can stream music via Pandora or play whatever we have purchased and loaded from iTunes.   As car technology matures the amount of data we will be able to capture, analyze and utilize will only increase.  We should be able to get a lot of information about drivers driving behavior. As cars move through the streets of America, we will also be able to capture information about the surroundings that they are traveling through.  Your insurance company would love to have this information so they could adjust your rates up or down.  A car is becoming a data collection device among other things.  How we manipulate and utilize that information will be a topic of hot discussion in the years to come.

The most dangerous thing about a car today is the people who drive them.  In fact it has pretty much been that way since Henry Ford rolled the first Model T’s off of the assembly line in Detroit.  The thing that makes humans interesting is their imperfections.  In most cases we inspire by doing the right thing or taking the right action.  However when we make the wrong decisions the results can be disastrous.  How many people are killed every year due to a drunk driving accident?  Or perhaps drivers who just have the thrill for speed or are just in a plain hurry and make reckless driving decisions?  Overall the statistics are pretty grim as is pointed out in Wired magazines article between 2001 and 2009, American roads claimed the lives of 369, 629 people. What if those choices were taken away?  To some (like myself), oh great joy.  I can just program in an address and let the vehicle get me there.  I might even be able to read a book or just enjoy the landscape on my drive.  No traffic issues as my auto computer has determined the quickest route to my destination base on up to the second traffic information received through the wireless network it receives.  My gas mileage will also be regulated and optimized, thus increasing my miles per gallon.  To those who scream at the thought of not being able to drive their beloved roadster and push the pedal to the metal I have but one phrase, “Get over it”.  As drivers you need to all understand.  Your precious driving ability can be summed up simply compared to what you will be competing with, “You suck”.  Your human, live with your imperfections. In the end technology moves forward gaining velocity as it does.  To try to stop or deny its progress is a waste of energy.  Look at the bright side you will now be able to text while driving.

Now that I have railed against everyone’s inadequacies I shall give you room to breathe.  When will all this happen?  As Mr. Ford has observed on his travels to the Silicon Valley, Detroit is in Michigan not California.  The entrepreneurial spirit is not evident in Detroit, at least not at the speed in which to make these changes happen.  The ability to shift and move quickly is not part of the old school automotive industry DNA.  This has always been a challenge for Detroit.  They did not see any of the oil shocks over the past four decades.  Every time oil prices go down they abandon ship on any typo of alternative fuel.  They seemingly have an amazing ability to not think about the future.  When you think of hybrid vehicles who do you think of?  The Toyota Prius.  There is about to be a slew of new competitors as both India and China get in the game.  Given their limited natural oil resources they are motivated to look at alternative fuels to feed their increasing upward mobile societies. Given the current price of gas (over $4 a gallon n Washington State). Are we looking within ten years?  Maybe.

The February issue of Wired magazine had an article regarding the state of robotic vehicles today.  Companies like Google are at work on creating the driver less experience on the roads of Silicon Valley.  They have prototypes on the road of the bay area today creating the experience of a vehicle with no driver.  Many auto manufacturer for years have had offices in the Silicon Valley to push technology into the vehicles we drive.  These include the likes of BMW and Mercedes.  Anyone who has had an older car can always marvel at the simplicity of the motor.  Look under the hood of today’s vehicle wonders is their room to out anything else in the vehicle’s engine space.  But cars are evolving as many come with new digital features with every iteration.  We can regulate temperature, get directions, satellite radio, cruise control,break systems, etc..It does raise a whole new set of regulatory issue that will need to be addressed. In Nevada they having already passed law regarding unmanned motor vehicles.  Many auto accidents today you can point to driver error.  What happens when you have a bug in the software that leads to an accident?  Do you then sue Chrysler?

The car, as Wired writer Tom Vanderbilt explains, is becoming a digital platform that we can, through the magic of software, create new value streams.   When the discussion of digital convergence first became a phrase we limited ourselves to media converging and being made available via the internet. But in the future it is apparent it will be far greater  than media, Technology will be pervasive in everything we touch.  We have entered an error where software in increasingly flying away from our desktops (Remember the Flying Toasters Screen Saver??).  Software will invade every aspect of our mechanized world in ways many have not imagined before.  The Americans beloved motor city automobile is no exception.  Detroit is a city as has well been documented that has struggled mightily since the oil shocks of the seventies.  A major US city that is actually shrinking as housing projects are being torn down and turned back into farm land.  As has always been the case in US history to see the future one only needs to look west.

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann March 9, 2012

I guess at first it sounds rather odd that the rumor mill is swirling with a pending release of Microsoft Office for the iPad.  I mean honestly for years Microsoft had been hell-bent on creating and owning the tablet market and now it sits at somewhere less than zero in the space.  Now it is reduced to playing Apple (and Google’s) game.  Granted we are being told great things will come with the release of Windows 8 somewhere later in the year, but in the mean time Apple is king and Google’s Android is the only thing making a run at that mountain.  In the meantime more reports are starting to surface that Microsoft Office is on the verge of releasing a version of Microsoft Office for the iPad.  It sounds a bit strange but we could make an argument for history repeating itself or we could see a battle ensuing between the two crown jewels of Microsoft: Windows vs Office.

When Steve Jobs launched the original Macintosh computer back in 1984 it ushered in the era of the graphical user interface (GUI).  He was not the first to do this as it was based on work done at XEROX PARC Labs, but he was the first to bring into to a mass audience.  One person saw the immediate impact and value of what the GUI would bring and set to learn all he could: Bill Gates.  Next his company, Microsoft, would start creating apps for the Mac, such as Word and Excel.  This is all, so far, common knowledge and those in the industry know the rest of the story.  But the question I put forth is “is Microsoft Office taking the same approach to Tablets as Microsoft did with the Mac”?   The reality is by the time Windows 8 ships it is pretty likely Apple will have sold another 25 million iPads.  I would also bet pretty strongly that when Windows 8 ships its initial year, it will not sell anywhere close to 25 million tablets (last quarter Apple sold 15.4 million iPads).  I am sure the Microsoft Office team, under the able leadership of Chris Capposella have had these discussions.  I am also sure that if they know those numbers they are asking,  “Are people buying tablets instead of PC’s and are we in danger of losing market share”?

The second thing, and  I can only speculate here, is that this type of development is not going down well with the Windows 8 team.  A release of Office on a tablet other than Windows, before Windows releases their tablet. There was a time that  Windows and Office seemed to work hand in hand.  Those days are long gone.  With Steve Sinofsky hard at work releasing Windows 8 and launching Microsoft into the tablet space (yet again).  I am sure they would love to launch the first version of Office for the tablet as a competitive edge.  But based on what the rumor mill is saying, it sounds like Office cannot wait for that train, they will be catching an earlier one.  The market will be over 100 million tablets when Windows 8 launches and the reality is the Office team cannot wait for its brother in arms to catch up as the train will have long since left the station.  The good news for Windows is that at least for now it is limited to iOS and there seems to be no plans for Android.  But unless Windows 8 makes substantial headway in a short amount of time, the temptation and reality for the Office team will be too much to ignore.

A final question would be the viability of desktop productivity applications in a Tablet, a device with no mouse and no keyboard.  Would I find myself using Excel to make pivot tables on my tablet?  How about animation slides with PowerPoint?   Probably not.  I would hope that the Office experience would have been rethought with the different type of interaction between human and technology with the tablet.  Technology is in an exciting phase where we are no longer confined to the desktop, but can access technology solutions wherever and whenever we would like.   For a long time Microsoft Office has been trying to be part of that experience.  Pocket Office for Windows Mobile anyone?  They are not wrong to try but maybe the challenge is they are trying to create a mass consumable experience that nobody really wants.  When I am hard at work on an important presentation or financial review , being at a desk in front of my desktop or laptop makes sense.  But when I am out one the town do I need Office with me?  When I am on my tablet am I doing business or browsing the web?  Playing games?   All questions that have answers.

Microsoft Office is the most successful productivity suite in the industries history.  But as technology changes so are people’s needs and understanding of technology.  A lot of the ninety percent market share can be attributed to people buying PC’s that came pre-installed with their purchase.  That did not necessarily mean that people were actively using Microsoft Office.    It reminds me of the days when Windows Mobile launched and there was a lot of bickering between Windows Mobile and MSN.  MSN was on mobile platforms such as Symbian and RIM, where as Microsoft Mobile felt they should be only supporting one; Windows Mobile.  The problem was that if MSN had done that it meant the prime competition at the time, AOL and Yahoo would east up the rest of the market share, which at the time was the other 85 percent of the market.  Moving forward it seems  one of those titanic shifts is taking place in technology that occurs every  five years. It is rethinking the boundaries of how we consume and experience technology.  A final point is any time you ship a device with Office, you add cost.  Yes Microsoft expects money for its service.  In an increasingly cost conscience environment is Office something we need so bad on our tablet?  As part of the Apple App store how many people will actively search for and pay for Microsoft Office?  The question for Microsoft Office, in order to maintain 90 percent market share does Windows have to be content with 50 percent

Good Night and Good Luck

Hans Henrik Hoffmann February 27, 2012